The latest figures from the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) show that the United States is struggling to regain momentum in its overseas visitor markets. For January through September 2026, the country’s 20 leading overseas markets generated 17.75 million arrivals, down 4.7% from the same period in 2025.
Factors to the decline are well-known and documented: increased air fares, weak world economy, high prices for mediocre services in the USA and above all, Donald Trump and its administration continuous negative image in overseas public opinions.
Europe outbound collapse to the US
Europe is a particular concern. Arrivals from France fell 15.3% to 1.01 million, Germany dropped 14.9% to 1.13 million, Italy declined 12.2% to 786,124, and the Netherlands fell 16.1% to 367,896. Ireland was down 9.4%, while Spain recorded a 5% decrease.
The United Kingdom remained the largest overseas source market, with almost three million arrivals during the first nine months, but numbers still slipped 1.2%. Taken together, the figures point to a broad-based weakening across established European markets rather than a downturn limited to one or two countries.
South Korea also recorded a substantial decline, with arrivals down 19.7% to 953,665, while India fell 9% to approximately 1.5 million. China was broadly stable, slipping just 0.1%.
Some markets bucked the trend. Colombia’s arrivals rose 14.1%, Ecuador increased 14.9%, and Taiwan gained 8.9%. Japan recorded modest growth of 1.7%, while Brazil increased 1.3%. However, these gains were insufficient to offset losses across several major source markets.
The disappointing performance comes in a year when the United States might have expected exceptional international interest. The 250th anniversary of independence and the FIFA World Cup were major opportunities to attract visitors, raise the country’s international profile and stimulate travel demand. Yet the figures so far offer little evidence of a sustained turnaround.
Top 20 overseas markets, January–September 2026
The figures show that tEurope stands out as the U.S.A. weakest major region.
Country of residence
Arrivals Jan–Sep 2026
Change vs. 2025
United Kingdom
2,980,798
-1.2%
India
1,498,936
-9.0%
Japan
1,491,723
+1.7%
Brazil
1,396,675
+1.3%
China
1,244,422
-0.1%
Germany
1,129,094
-14.9%
France
1,012,698
-15.3%
South Korea
953,665
-19.7%
Colombia
851,667
+14.1%
Italy
786,124
-12.2%
Australia
679,242
-7.1%
Spain
649,508
-5.0%
Argentina
619,948
+1.0%
Ecuador
382,353
+14.9%
Dominican Republic
372,023
-3.6%
Netherlands
367,896
-16.1%
Taiwan
360,008
+8.9%
Israel
355,862
+0.8%
Ireland
321,027
-9.4%
Poland
300,928
+0.5%
Total 20 overseas markets
17,754,597
-4.7%
Canada: a rebound that masks a deeper slump
Canada provides another important measure of the challenges facing US tourism. According to Statistics Canada, Canadian-resident return trips from the United States by automobile and air reached 1.9 million in September 2026, up 6.8% from September 2025. This marked the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year growth.
However, it could be compared to a “dead cat bounce”, an expression used by financial circles to describe a small, brief recovery in the price of a declining asset.
Canada outbound to the USA compared with 2024 tells meanwhile a different story. Automobile return trips remained 31.1% below September 2024, while air travel was down 18.7%. The apparent recovery therefore needs to be interpreted against the sharp decline in Canadian travel to the United States during 2025.
The persistent gap suggests that the United States continues to face a significant challenge in one of its most important neighboring markets. As tensions are up again between the USA and Canada, outbound from Canadian travelers is likely to decline again.
Canadian residents also made one million return trips from overseas countries by air in September, up 3.2% year over year. The figure indicates that Canadians are traveling abroad again, but the recovery has not restored US-bound travel to its 2024 level.
With European arrivals weakening and Canadian travel still substantially below its previous level, the US tourism sector faces a difficult final quarter. The anniversary celebrations and football tournament may have generated international attention, but the available figures suggest they have not reversed the broader downward trend
