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Τρίτη 13 Σεπτεμβρίου 2016

Predictive analytic continues to show slow future business activity for US hoteliers

Αποτέλεσμα εικόνας για Predictive analytic continues to show slow future business activity for US hoteliers


DURHAM, NEW HAMPSHIRE - USA - Future business activity in U.S. hotels rose in July according to the latest reading of the Hotels' future business conditions (HIL) indicator. e-forecasting.com's HIL, a composite indicator that gauges future monthly overall business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry, increased by 0.1% in July to 127.8, following a nil growth in June. The index is set to equal 100 in 2010.

"The probability of the hotel industry entering into recession in the near-term, which is detected in real-time from HIL with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 39.3% in July, up from 38.3% in June," said Maria Sogard, CEO at e­forecasting.com. "When this gauge of the risk for an upcoming recession passes the threshold probability of 50% for more than three months, the U.S. hotel industry will enter a recession phase in its business cycle," Maria added.

Five of the forward looking indicators of business activity that comprise Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) Indicator had a positive contribution to its change in July: Jobs Market; Hotel Profitability; Foreign Demand; New Orders and Vacation Barometer. Four indicators of future business activity had a negative or zero contribution to HIL's change in July: Hotel Worker Hours; Yield Curve; Oil Prices and Housing Activity.

"The six month annualized smoothed growth rate of HIL, a long-range growth predictive analytic which confirms the underlying cyclical business trend for US hoteliers, posted a positive rate of 0.6% in July, compared to a 30-year average annual growth rate of 2%," said Evangelos Simos, professor of economics at the University of New Hampshire and series editor for predictive analytics databases at e-forecasting .com."When the six month growth in HIL enters a near zero to negative range for 2-4 consecutive months, the industry will go to recession," Evangelos added.

The latest HIL reading is used to update e-forecasting.com’s total US Monthly Hotel Forecast as well as market level forecasts for the top 25 US  markets. The firm also covers EMEA markets via a partnership with HotStats with hotel market profitability forecasts.