However, geopolitical tensions and climate instability continue to challenge the sector. Higher energy prices could also squeeze household budgets and weaken travel confidence. As a result, travellers may become more price-conscious over winter and into 2027.
Against this backdrop, the European Commission published its Sustainable Tourism Strategy on 4 November 2026. The strategy aims to strengthen competitiveness, sustainability and resilience across the travel industry. The ETC welcomed the initiative as a positive step towards stronger multi-level governance. It also highlighted the need for deeper cooperation between European institutions and tourism stakeholders.
The ETC’s latest European Tourism: Trends & Prospects quarterly report for Q3 2026 highlights tourism’s importance to Europe’s economy and way of life. Furthermore, its findings reinforce Europe’s position as the world’s leading tourism destination.
Northern and value-for-money destinations lead growth
Northern Europe recorded the strongest regional growth over summer 2026. Central and Eastern Europe followed, attracting travellers seeking better value for money.
Overnight stays in Northern Europe climbed 7.2%, while arrivals increased by 6.2%. Greater affordability encouraged more cross-border travel. This trend helped lift visitor numbers in Sweden.
Several smaller destinations recorded double-digit growth in international arrivals. Malta led with an 18% increase, followed by Slovakia at 15%. Ireland recorded 13% growth, while Poland reached 11%. Romania and Montenegro each reported a 10% increase.
By comparison, Europe’s largest destinations recorded more moderate growth. Arrivals increased by 5% in Spain, 3% in France and 1% in Italy.
Geopolitical and climate risks challenge the outlook
Geopolitical developments continue to shape the outlook for European tourism. Risks affecting Middle East airspace threaten connections between Europe and Asia. Consequently, airlines may face longer flight times, higher operating costs and further disruption.
Prolonged disruption to oil and gas supplies could also keep energy prices high. Higher costs would increase travel expenses and put pressure on household incomes. Tourism businesses and wider economic growth could face additional challenges.
Some destinations already report the effects of regional instability. Cyprus recorded a 7% decline in arrivals. Flight disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict contributed to the downturn. Safety concerns following a drone incident also affected demand, despite a strong start to the year.
Meanwhile, wildfires disrupted tourism in parts of Spain and France. However, the fires did not significantly affect national tourism figures.
In Spain, arrivals increased by 5.4% and overnight stays by 1.2% in the year to August. Timely communication and visitor guidance from national tourism authorities helped limit disruption in affected areas.
France recorded 2.7% growth in both arrivals and overnight stays in July. However, wildfires peaked in August. Their full impact may therefore not yet appear in the figures.
Higher costs could make travellers more price-conscious
Inbound tourism spending increased in most European destinations this year. Higher prices partly explain this trend. Hungary recorded the widest gap between spending and arrivals. Spending rose by 20.1%, compared with 2.5% growth in arrivals. A stronger forint also supported the increase.
Spending growth also outpaced arrival growth in Greece, Belgium, Spain, France, Germany, Portugal and Italy.
However, pressure on household finances could intensify over the coming months. Higher gas prices may restrict travel budgets as operating costs and airfares rise. Meanwhile, eurozone wage growth could fall slightly below inflation this winter.
Household savings have already declined. Consequently, pressure on consumer spending may become more visible during Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.
Destinations could therefore face greater price sensitivity and later bookings this winter and into 2027. Places offering good value and convenient access may prove better positioned to maintain demand.
Rising costs also rank as the industry’s leading concern. Half of surveyed tourism professionals identified them as their main worry. Overall financial concerns eased slightly to 83%, down from 87% in the Q2 survey.
Nevertheless, fuel prices could rise further during Q4. This would put additional pressure on airfares while household budgets remain stretched.
European tourism moves towards a longer season
International visits to Europe are becoming more evenly distributed throughout the year. High summer prices and congestion could accelerate this shift.
The gap between Q1, the quietest quarter, and Q3, the peak travel period, is expected to narrow. It averaged 22.5% during 2010–2015. By 2027, the gap could fall to 20.4%.
Central and Eastern Europe show the clearest shift towards year-round tourism. There, the seasonal gap could narrow to 13.6%, from 19.0%. The region continues to attract travellers seeking value throughout the year.
Mediterranean destinations are recording the strongest growth in winter demand. However, they start from a lower base than other regions. Growing interest in winter-sun holidays supports this trend.
Meanwhile, Northern European destinations could attract more summer visitors. Hotter weather elsewhere may strengthen their appeal as cooler alternatives during peak season.
This gradual shift towards year-round travel supports the Sustainable Tourism Strategy’s objective of balancing visitor flows. A more even distribution could reduce seasonal pressure on popular destinations. It could also create opportunities for less-visited regions.
Commenting on the findings, Miguel Sanz, President of the European Travel Commission, said: “European tourism has continued to show resilience this summer, despite a more volatile global environment. While rising costs mean travellers will be more selective in where and how they spend on travel, it is particularly encouraging to see smaller destinations growing and visits spreading more evenly across the year. A longer tourism season can deliver more balanced benefits across Europe, supporting local economies and communities beyond the summer peak.”
