The study was presented by Emilio Inés, Tourism Global Director at The Data Appeal Company, during the Seasonality Summit 2026 in Rimini. The report analyses inbound tourism demand across Italy, Spain, Greece, Croatia and Portugal, focusing on traveller behaviour, seasonality patterns, air connectivity, pricing trends and demand drivers.
According to the findings, Southern Mediterranean destinations continue to progress at different speeds in addressing tourism seasonality. Based on the Summer Dependence Rate, Spain recorded the lowest reliance on peak-season tourism at 52.8%, followed by Portugal at 54.5% and Italy at 58.7%, compared with the South Mediterranean average of 59.1%.
Greece and Croatia remain significantly more dependent on summer demand, recording rates of 72.9% and 79.1% respectively. However, the report noted that Greece is beginning to show signs of extending tourism activity into the shoulder seasons.
The report also identified different traveller profiles during the low season. Between January and March, demand is primarily driven by couples from nearby markets staying in midscale accommodation. From October to December, travellers are more likely to come from established European source markets and extend summer travel periods while selecting upscale accommodation options.
According to the study, events are increasingly contributing to low-season tourism demand. Emilio Inés stated: “Organically counter-seasonal, between 53% and 72% of events already take place outside peak months, while 58% to 73% of total attendance is concentrated in the low season, effectively turning events into a demand powerhouse for low season periods.”
The report highlighted connectivity, climate perception, pricing and tourism experiences as key factors supporting more balanced year-round tourism models.
Air connectivity across the five destinations analysed is expected to continue growing during late 2026. Between October and December 2026, 96.64 million airline seats are scheduled to connect Italy, Spain, Greece, Croatia and Portugal, representing a 4.6% increase compared with the same period in 2025.
Among the destinations studied, Greece is expected to record the highest growth in air capacity at 10.7%, followed by Spain at 5.4% and Italy at 4.2%. Portugal is the only destination forecast to record a decline in seat capacity during the fourth quarter, decreasing by 2.5%.
According to the report, low-cost carriers continue to play an important role in extending low-season connectivity, particularly in Italy and Spain, while traditional airlines are also increasing winter capacity across Italy, Spain and Greece. In Croatia and Portugal, low-season connectivity currently accounts for an average of 58.5% of total airline capacity.
The analysis also identified climate perception as an increasingly important competitive advantage for low-season tourism, particularly among repeat short- and medium-haul visitors, digital nomads, younger travellers and senior segments.
Using the Perception of Climate Index (PCI), the study identified “windows of climate opportunity” during periods when weather conditions exceed traveller expectations. Italy, Spain and Greece were found to benefit from two main windows, covering late winter to early spring and autumn, while Croatia and Portugal also benefit from an additional spring opportunity.
Emilio Inés stated: “When aligned with inbound holiday calendars, these periods present significant opportunities to stimulate low-season demand.”
The report also found that the United Kingdom, Germany and France remain core source markets for low-season travel, with 63%, 60% and 53% of holidays respectively taking place outside peak summer periods.
