According to the research, the policy could result in the loss of up to 157,000 jobs in the United States, equivalent to the number of jobs typically created in a single quarter.
The findings are based on a multi-country survey of travellers from ESTA-eligible markets, combined with economic impact modelling assessing potential effects on international arrivals, visitor spending, tourism-related GDP, and employment in the U.S.
WTTC’s analysis, conducted in partnership with GSIQ and Oxford Economics, indicates that awareness of the proposed policy change is already high. Two-thirds of respondents (66%) said they were familiar with the potential change, suggesting any impact on travel sentiment could be felt rapidly if implemented.
Approximately 34% of respondents stated they would be somewhat or much less likely to visit the United States in the next two to three years if the changes are introduced. By contrast, only 12% said they would be more likely to visit, resulting in a significant net decline in travel intent.
The research also highlights broader perception issues. A larger share of respondents said the policy would make the U.S. feel less welcoming and less attractive for both leisure and business travel. More respondents believe the policy would harm U.S. economic prosperity rather than strengthen it, while a majority indicated it would either have no impact on their personal safety or make them feel less safe while travelling in the country.
Gloria Guevara, President and CEO of WTTC, said: “Security at the U.S. border is vital but the planned policy changes will damage job creation, which the U.S. Administration values so much. Our research finds that over 150,000 jobs could be lost if this policy goes ahead, the same number usually created each quarter in the U.S. Even modest shifts in visitor behaviour, put off by the planned changes, will have real economic consequences for U.S. Travel & Tourism, particularly in a highly competitive global market.”
When compared with other major destinations, the proposed U.S. entry policy is viewed as more intrusive than those of competitors such as the UK, Japan, Canada, and Western Europe. WTTC notes that this perception places the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage in the global tourism market.
Under a high-impact scenario modelled by WTTC, the United States could receive approximately 4.7 million fewer international arrivals in 2026, representing a 23.7% reduction from ESTA countries compared with a business-as-usual baseline.
Associated losses in visitor spending are estimated at up to USD 15.7 billion, with wider Travel & Tourism GDP losses of USD 21.5 billion. Employment impacts could reach as many as 157,000 jobs, three times the average number of jobs created each month in the U.S. in 2025. The research also notes that inbound travel has already declined by 11 million visitors between 2019 and 2025.
Guevara added: “WTTC urges U.S. policymakers to carefully assess this policy and its consequences for the economy and jobs. Travel & Tourism is a critical driver of the American economy, job creation and international connectivity, with one in three jobs in the world created by the sector.”
Tags: Gloria Guevara, WTTC USA ESTA
