Mabrian’s findings reflect the inspirational travel demand data based on Mabrian’s Share of Searches Index, that indicates the degree of market interest in given destinations based on flight searches behaviour, and independently of confirmed bookings. For this analysis, Share of Searches Index* tracked flight searches in the top 20 American airports, (representing 85% of the total international air connectivity from the U.S.), during the last month, for trips between November 2024 and February 2025 to top performing Caribbean destinations (Mexican Caribbean, Costa Rica, Puerto Rico, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and Bahamas).
United States is a traditionally strong key source market for The Caribbean, especially during winter season. As per latest data available from the Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO), comprising consolidated data from all Caribbean destinations for full year 2023, United States accounts for approximately 16.3 million stay-over arrivals, growing +12.7% year over year. The United States is a considerably relevant inbound market for The Caribbean, that received approximately 32.2 million international travellers in 2023.
As the performance of Share of Searches Index of American demand into The Caribbean indicates, U.S. inspirational demand to Costa Rica is the one growing the most among all countries analysed, +33% year over year. Of Costa Rican two main airports, demand to the North Western airport Daniel Oduber Quirós International Airport is the one growing the most, up to +54%, being the easiest way to reach the coveted coastline of Tambor, Tamarindo Papagayo Gulf, among others.
“Costa Rica’s inspirational demand increase is very uniform throughout all the American airports analysed, demonstrating that this is a top-of-mind destination for American travellers during winter season, that looks very positive and promising in terms of consolidated bookings and arrivals”, says Carlos Cendra, Partner and Director of Marketing and Communications at Mabrian.
Other Caribbean destinations showing a growing trend in inspirational demand is Puerto Rico (increasing +9% compared to the same period in 2023); The Mexican Caribbean (an average of +6% growth for Cancun, Cozumel, and Tulum airports); and Dominican Republic (an average of +4% increase, pushed mainly by Santo Domingo’s Las Americas Airport).
Tulum Airport, a powerful demand driver to the Mexican Caribbean
American demand to Quintana Roo remains strong for the coming winter season. The opening of the new Felipe Carrillo Puerto Airport in Tulum last December 1st, 2023, is fuelling American travellers’ demand to the Mexican Caribbean, contributing to an overall +6% interannual increase to travel between November 2024 and February 2025. With this new airport, Share of Searches Index to Cozumel corrects slightly, reducing -9% year over year, which does not affect the growing demand trend to Quintana Roo.
Contributing to the solid demand from American travellers to the Yucatan Peninsula, Mabrian data also reflects that inspirational demand to travel between November 2024 and February 2025 to Cancun also grows +4% compared to the winter prior.
According to Mabrian’s spokesperson, “Tulum Airport will be a significant attraction pole and connectivity hub for the Mexican Caribbean, contributing significatively to attract more American and international mid-high segment travellers in the coming years”.
Finally, and among the destinations that are conveying less interest among American travellers for winter holidays in The Caribbean are Jamaica (-17% less searches than the winter prior) and the Bahamas (-20%).
In the case of Jamaica, inspirational demand to Montego Bay reduces -23% compared to the same period prior, whereas interest in Kingston Town grows +12% year over year. In the case of the Bahamas, the data suggests a rise of inspirational travel demand to the alternative, laid-back Grand Bahamas (+6%), and a significant demand decrease for the still highly popular Nassau (-22%). Finally, Barbados demand remains stable, as inspirational demand from the U.S. grows +1% since winter 2023-2024.
* Mabrian’s Share of Searches Index is proprietary index that reflects the strength of travel demand based on flight searches behaviour. Given a source market and a period of time, the Share of Searches Index is a percentage that correlates the total flight searches globally with spontaneous searches for specific destinations. Unlike confirmed bookings, this ratio shows the degree of market interest in certain destinations, and whether reservations are confirmed depends on many factors, from available connectivity, flight and accommodation prices, or other phenomena that may influence travellers’ willingness to purchase or spend.
Tags: Mabrian, Caribbean Tourism Organization, Felipe Carrillo Puerto Airport
