Here is a summary of the forecast:
- Since October 2022, flight movements in Europe have developed in line with the base scenario.
- This forecast is the first publication post COVID-19 with all forecasting modules reconnected: the low-to-high values now refer to a forecast range (statistical uncertainty) rather than scenarios.
- The number of European flights in 2023 and 2024 has been slightly revised upwards due to the continuation of vivid pent-up demand (solid bookings, strong tourist flows in Southern Europe),
- We expect to reach 2019 flight levels (11.1 million) in 2025.
- After 2025, the flight growth is expected to average a weak rate of 1.5% per year in the base forecast, owing to the greater uncertainties within the 7-year horizon (higher inflation, pressure on oil prices, environmental concerns…). As downside risks prevail, the number of flights in the low forecast stagnates from 2025 onwards.
- Users of the forecasts are strongly advised to use the forecast range. Moreover, uncertainties surrounding further deterioration of the economy, possible escalation of the geopolitical tensions or other unpredictable events may have a negative impact on this forecast.
