Caroline Bremner, Head of Travel at Euromonitor comments: "A devalued currency makes the UK more attractive to potential visitors, however, the UK’s travel and tourism industry has a negative balance of trade, where outbound travel far outweighs inbound, so the positive impact would be limited.
In 2016, 34 million inbound visitors are forecast, with 64% coming from Europe – clearly, imposing restrictions on travel and introducing visas and additional border controls would have a major impact on inbound tourism. After Hong Kong, London is the second most-visited city in the world by international tourists, with 17.4 million visitors in 2014."
In 2016, 34 million inbound visitors are forecast, with 64% coming from Europe – clearly, imposing restrictions on travel and introducing visas and additional border controls would have a major impact on inbound tourism. After Hong Kong, London is the second most-visited city in the world by international tourists, with 17.4 million visitors in 2014."
| Arrivals from United Kingdom - Number of '000 trips | |||
| Geographies | Categories | 2009 | 2014 |
| United Kingdom | Arrivals from France |
3,283.40
|
3,591.60
|
| United Kingdom | Arrivals from US |
2,877.20
|
2,935.80
|
| United Kingdom | Arrivals from Germany |
2,411.70
|
2,911.70
|
| United Kingdom | Arrivals from Ireland |
2,557.30
|
2,232.00
|
| United Kingdom | Arrivals from Spain |
2,163.80
|
1,768.10
|
| © Euromonitor International | |||
Coupled with the impact of recession and the uncertainty of at least two to seven years whilst the UK renegotiates its borders, trade relations, tariffs and duties with the rest of Europe, this could lead to a worst-case scenario of over 15% decline in volume, with even greater impact on tourism receipts, as prices fall to stimulate demand as the shockwaves are felt across the travel industry and broader economy.
| Arrivals (Trips) | % Growth 2015/2016 |
| Exit | -7 |
| Exit and recession | -12 |
| Exit, recession + other | -15 |
How the next day would look
Bold steps for the new-look independent UK, following a Brexit could be implementing the following:
- Remove APD from all UK airports, reduce landing and airport charges to make the UK more competitive
- Forgo concerns about airport expansion in the Southeast and expand the Heathrow hub
- Develop sub-hubs in Gatwick, the Northeast and Scotland to boost air connectivity, particularly from emerging markets like China and Asia
- Establish ultra-low cost, long haul airline to boost the North Atlantic air traffic
- Offer discounts to European travellers by air, rail or sea
- Counter-intuitively, the new UK could join Schengen, if still operational
- New UK could hold another Olympics in 2024 or 2028.
