SANTA ROSA BEACH, FLA. – Τhe US short-term rental (STR) market is stabilizing in early 2026, with bookings holding steady compared to last year, while rising rates are expected to drive revenue growth into the peak summer season.
According to the Q2 2026 US Key Data Index, on-the-books data indicates revenue per available rental (RevPAR) pacing 8% higher year over year in April, highlighting a rate-driven outlook for the months ahead.Booking demand has leveled off after improving in late 2025, with reservations per property now broadly in line with last year. This marks a shift away from recovery-driven growth. Forward-looking data points to rate-driven revenue growth, rather than an increase in bookings, for the summer months.
On-the-books data shows a positive outlook for the upcoming peak season, led by pricing rather than demand growth. Paid occupancy is pacing ahead of last year, with April up 8% year over year, slowing to 2% in May and 1% in June. At the same time, average daily rates (ADR) are pacing well ahead of last year, increasing 9% in April, 6% in May, and 6% in June, driving RevPAR growth of 8% in April and around 7% in May and June.
While these gains are strong, forward-looking rates have been trending above final performance in recent months, and these gains are expected to moderate as the season progresses. Based on recent patterns, final ADR and RevPAR growth is likely to settle closer to low single-digit increases by the end of the summer. This suggests that revenue growth will be driven primarily by higher rates rather than a significant increase in bookings.
Pricing strength continues to support performance. Finalized Q1 2026 data shows steady ADR growth, rising from 1% in January to 3% in March. This helped support consistent gains in RevPAR despite mixed occupancy trends. Forward pricing data suggests operators are continuing to hold rates rather than discounting to drive early bookings, indicating confidence that demand will materialize closer to arrival, rather than through early booking momentum.
Forward occupancy remains positive, but growth moderates from 8% year over year in April to 1–2% in May and June. This reflects a more gradual booking pace as the market approaches peak season. Booking windows are also stabilizing rather than compressing, indicating that demand is building at a more measured pace, making early pacing a more reliable indicator of final performance than in recent years.
Shorter booking windows are reshaping how reservations are made. In Q1 2026, Airbnb accounted for 50% of reservations and 37% of revenue, up from 46% and 34% the previous year. Direct bookings, meanwhile, declined to 23% of reservations and 35% of revenue, down from 26% and 39% in 2025. Although direct bookings remain a significant revenue source, they are losing share as travelers increasingly turn to platforms that offer speed and last-minute availability.
Melanie Brown, VP of Data Analytics and Insights, Key Data, said: “Booking demand has stabilized, but revenue is still growing because operators are holding firm on pricing. We’re seeing a market where travelers are still booking, but they’re making more selective choices. That puts more pressure on pricing strategy and timing. The operators who respond quickly to demand as it builds will be best positioned to capture revenue this year.”
The outlook for 2026 indicates a stable but more competitive market, where revenue growth will continue but will depend less on overall demand growth and more on how effectively operators manage pricing and capture bookings closer to arrival.
Tags: Melanie Brown, Key Data
