Since the Autumn 2024 forecast, European flights have been, overall, very slightly below the base scenario of that forecast. Locally, there were more overflights than expected in some of the Mediterranean States, as well as in the Baltic States, triggered by different factors (the various conflicts and the subsequent airspace closure/re-openings, utilisation of more southern routes to avoid congested areas). On the other hand, there were slightly fewer flights than anticipated in Northern Europe States (e.g. Germany, UK, Ireland, The Netherlands, Finland, Sweden, Poland).
These outturns and trends have been taken into account in the latest forecast, as well as the relatively optimistic summer 2025 schedule information provided to EUROCONTROL by airlines and a slightly more pessimistic economic forecast for 2025.
At European level, the number of flights in 2025 is forecast at 11.0 million (base scenario), 3.7% up on 2024; the high scenario is for growth of 5.1%. Removing the effect of the leap year in 2024, this corresponds to growth (in daily terms) of 4.0% in the base scenario and 5.3% in the high scenario. It is expected that 2019 levels of traffic, for ECAC as a whole, will be reached during the second quarter. However, many states already have traffic considerably in excess of 2019 levels.
For 2026, traffic is expected to increase by a further 2.5% (±1.3pp) to 11.3 million flights. Beyond 2026, traffic is expected to continue to grow, reaching over 12 million flights by 2031 in the base scenario.
For the states involved in the SES Performance Scheme, flight growth is expected to average 2.2% annually (±1.65pp) between 2025 and 2029 (RP4), representing a slight downward revision (-0.1pp) from the previous forecast.
This forecast is subject to various uncertainties, such as geopolitical events, economic shocks and ongoing challenges in the aviation industry; users are strongly advised to consider the low-to-high range of forecast values for their plans. This forecast considers the current airspace closures/sanctions as unchanged until the end of the horizon. It must be recognised that any developments vis-à-vis the Ukraine-Russia conflict could affect the forecast.
Tags: EUROCONTROL
