Amex GBT’s Hotel Monitor 2027 forecasts hotel rate increases across major business travel destinations, although the pace varies significantly by market. The report forecasts more moderate increases in Asia-Pacific and continued uncertainty in Gulf destinations as the Middle East conflict weighs on demand.
For the first time, Amex GBT is presenting its forecasts as ranges rather than single figures, citing geopolitical uncertainty and commodity price volatility. The company said the lower end of each range should be used if the Middle East conflict does not resolve quickly or if global inflation follows the International Monetary Fund’s July World Economic Outlook forecast of 4.7% for 2026. If inflation rises above that level, the upper end of the ranges becomes more likely.
The forecasts are based on Amex GBT data combined with inflation and GDP forecasts from the IMF, using Prophet time-series modeling.
Among the cities covered, São Paulo is projected to see one of the largest increases, with rates forecast to rise 10.9%-12.2% in 2027. Buenos Aires follows at 8.1%-8.7%, while Madrid is forecast to increase 6.1%-9.2% and Mexico City 4.7%-7.1%.
In the U.S., New York hotel rates are projected to increase 1.6%-2.5%. Toronto is forecast at 0.5%-1.9%.
European markets are expected to see continued rate growth. London is forecast to increase 3.6%-5.4%, while Paris is projected at 3.1%-4.8%. Amex GBT said Paris continues to benefit from its position as a leading events destination.
The Gulf outlook is more restrained. Dubai rates are forecast to increase 1%-2%, while Riyadh is projected at 1.5%-3.2%. According to the report, hotel occupancy in the UAE fell as low as 19.6% in March before recovering to the 40%-50% range. Amex GBT expects hotels to continue using competitive pricing to attract visitors.
In Asia-Pacific, Beijing is forecast to see a 1.9%-3% increase, while Bengaluru is projected at 5%-5.5%. Sydney rates are expected to rise 3.5%-5% and Singapore 0.8%-1.6%.
India is identified as a market to watch in 2027. While the country is projected to remain the world’s fastest-growing economy, Amex GBT expects hotel rate growth to moderate as additional hotel supply comes online. The company said rate increases could still exceed 5% in some markets as global hotel companies continue expanding in the country.
Rising airfares are another factor affecting business travel. Amex GBT Consulting said airfares were up 15% year over year in mid-2026, with increases on some Asia routes reaching as much as twice that level. The higher costs are putting pressure on travel budgets and shifting some demand toward Asia-Pacific, while business travelers continue to favor premium accommodations rather than trading down.
“This year’s forecast reveals a nuanced global environment where geopolitical uncertainties and commodity price volatility are shaping hotel rates in different ways across regions,” said Sara Andell, director, consulting strategy, Amex GBT Consulting. “Price is a key indicator, but it doesn’t always tell the full story. We’re encouraging companies to consider what value means to them, and what they are getting from their hotel spend, not just the headline rate.”
The report also examines the growing role of AI in hotel sourcing. Hotels are increasingly using agentic AI for revenue management and rate-setting, while travel managers are adopting AI-enabled sourcing tools to speed decision-making, analyze pricing and support negotiations.
Amex GBT said the technology is contributing to a shift in hotel sourcing from an annual process toward a more continuous approach.
