The ADV now expects around 217 million passengers to use German airports this year, down 1.4% from 2025. The latest estimate is about five million passengers lower than the previous forecast issued in April.
A modest increase in July passenger numbers was not enough to change the outlook. German airports handled 21.75 million passengers during the month, up 0.9% from July 2025. However, commercial flight movements fell 1.8%.
Compared with July 2019, passenger traffic remained 12.1% lower, while the number of flights was down 17.5%.
Ralph Beisel, CEO of ADV, said the July increase should not mask the sector’s broader stagnation.
He described the latest forecast downgrade as a “warning signal,” noting that expectations have now been significantly reduced twice within four months.
The aviation industry had already revised its outlook in April following the impact of the Iran war. The latest adjustment cuts another five million passengers from that forecast.
“While aviation is developing dynamically in many European countries, Germany is falling behind,” Beisel said. He blamed high government-imposed aviation costs and difficult economic conditions for preventing airlines from adding capacity at German airports.
A good example is just the recent announcement of United Airlines to add flights to 10 European cities in summer 2027. None of the new destinations include a destination in Germany!
No growth expected in 2026
From January through July, 119.43 million passengers traveled through German airports. That was 0.5% below the same period last year and 16% below 2019 levels.
Flight capacity has performed even worse. Commercial flight movements were down 3.8% year over year during the first seven months and had recovered to only 77.9% of pre-pandemic levels.
ADV now expects passenger traffic to fall 1.4% for the full year to around 217 million.
Geopolitical uncertainty and weak economic conditions are weighing on demand, but ADV said Germany’s relatively high government charges are a major structural disadvantage.
Germany faces a cost disadvantage
According to ADV, external crises such as the Iran war do not fully explain Germany’s weaker performance compared with other European markets. Despite a reduction in Germany’s aviation tax, government-imposed charges remain well above the European average.
ADV calculates that a flight from a German airport to a European destination faces an average €4,449 in taxes and fees, compared with €2,326 across Europe.
For a flight to New York, the government-related burden rises to €16,177, compared with an average of €6,914 at comparable European airports.
Beisel said Germany needs conditions that encourage airlines to deploy more aircraft and add routes.
“Every connection that is lost to another European airport weakens our international connectivity and, with it, Germany’s economic position,” he said.
The association is consequently urging the German government to address what it describes as structural disadvantages facing the country’s aviation sector.
ADV is calling for:
Lower government-imposed aviation costs to competitive European levels
Further reductions in bureaucracy
Aviation policies focused on strengthening Germany’s international connectivity
With passenger traffic still well below 2019 levels and flight activity recovering even more slowly, ADV said a sustained recovery for German aviation definitely remains out of sight in 2026.
Tags: Ralph Beisel, ADV Germany
