Airlines are entering Thanksgiving week 2025 with a sense of cautious optimism, as operational disruptions seen earlier in the season have eased and carriers prepare for one of the year’s busiest travel periods. According to OAG Chief Analyst John Grant, U.S. domestic airline capacity is set to reach 20.3 million seats – slightly above the 20 million seats operated during Thanksgiving week in 2024.
The overall increase is driven largely by low-cost carriers. Breeze Airways leads domestic percentage growth with a 34% rise in capacity compared with last year, while Southwest Airlines adds the greatest number of seats in absolute terms, expanding its offering by around 200,000. Other LCCs – including JetBlue, Allegiant and Frontier –are also increasing domestic capacity by more than 5%, reflecting intensified competition across the U.S. market.On the international front, capacity is up by only 2% overall versus Thanksgiving 2024, but several airlines are showing strong growth. United Airlines leads among U.S. carriers, adding approximately 37,000 seats for the week, a 9% year-on-year increase. This stands in contrast to more cautious strategies from other legacy carriers.
Latin American markets continue to perform strongly. Avianca has expanded its capacity by 19%, adding 9,000 seats, while Volaris increases its offering by 7,400 seats – representing 9% growth. Mexico remains the largest international market for the holiday period, with more than half a million seats scheduled and 7,000 additional seats compared with last year.In contrast, Canadian connectivity is declining. Air Canada has reduced capacity by 11% for the seven-day period, and WestJet has cut its U.S. capacity by 12%, contributing to a total loss of nearly 27,000 seats in the U.S. – Canada market. United Airlines, however, stands out with a 10% increase in capacity to Canadian destinations. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom remains the third-largest international market, although capacity is expected to fall by nearly 7,000 seats due to reductions from British Airways and American Airlines.
With additions from carriers like Breeze, Southwest and United counterbalanced by cuts from others, overall capacity for Thanksgiving travel remains broadly in line with 2024 levels. The key question now is operational reliability. If carriers maintain stable operations and weather disruptions remain limited, the airline industry appears poised for a smooth and successful Thanksgiving travel period.
