Contrail avoidance emerges as the most powerful lever in mitigating aviation’s climate impact, accounting for 40% of the potential temperature mitigation by 2050 – twice the impact of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs). This cost-effective approach could save a significant amount of warming at an affordable cost of under 4 euros per long-haul ticket.
The study’s release coincides with discussions at the ICAO’s 42nd Assembly in Montreal, where policymakers are deliberating on whether to include short-lived climate pollutants in aviation’s 2050 net-zero goals. According to Dan Rutherford, ICCT’s aviation program director, “The surprising finding is that aviation isn’t a hard-to-abate sector once you factor in contrail avoidance.” This conclusion is supported by research indicating that just 5% of flights cause 80% of contrail warming, making targeted action both feasible and effective.
The ICCT study uses advanced computer modeling, analyzing real flight data to predict contrail formation and climate impacts. The study’s “Full Breakthrough” scenario shows that by focusing on both greenhouse gases and short-lived climate pollutants, aviation can prevent its share of global warming from exceeding its current 4%, even as traffic is expected to increase by 150% to 250% by 2050.
Contrail avoidance alone can reduce additional warming by over 90%, with other measures like sustainable aviation fuels and more efficient operations contributing the remaining benefits. The study highlights that while contrail avoidance offers immediate climate benefits, it works best when paired with other technologies.
The ICCT’s analysis also emphasizes the economic advantages of contrail avoidance. At $5-20 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent avoided, it is far more cost-effective than sustainable aviation fuels, which are priced at over $300 per tonne CO₂e. For passengers, the cost of contrail mitigation amounts to less than 4 euros per long-haul ticket – barely more than an airport coffee.
The report outlines a practical implementation timeline, suggesting that high-income countries could begin scaling contrail avoidance in 2032, reaching 95% effectiveness by 2042. This would provide immediate climate protection, complementing longer-term greenhouse gas reductions.
The ICCT’s findings provide aviation leaders with a choice: stick with CO₂-only targets, allowing aviation’s climate impact to double, or adopt contrail avoidance measures and achieve climate-neutral growth.
Tags: International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), aviation
