After Category 4 Hurricane Idalia in late August, the region has been relatively quiet, with only Tropical Storm Arlene in early June and Tropical Storm Harold in mid-August making appearances this hurricane season.
However, the meteorologists are closely monitoring the Gulf as they anticipate the possibility of tropical activity before the middle of October.
The key factor influencing the Gulf’s weather next week is the behaviour of tropical systems in the eastern Pacific. Hurricane Lidia is expected to make landfall in west-central Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane, and there is another tropical rainstorm brewing alongside it. Some of the moisture and energy from these systems may transfer to the Gulf of Mexico during the upcoming week.
The potential storm development in the Gulf could take various forms, including tropical, subtropical, or non-tropical. While it’s too early to predict a hurricane, there is concern because a fully tropical system, like a hurricane, has the potential to bring damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding. In contrast, a cool-season non-tropical storm is generally less intense and more manageable.
Regardless of the system’s exact nature, the Gulf is expected to experience a broad area of clouds, rain, and thunderstorms over the next week, with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms extending to the northern Gulf coast and Florida by late week. Even if a non-tropical storm forms, rough seas and high surf are likely.
Meteorologists caution travel, fishing, shipping, and petroleum interests in the Gulf to monitor the situation closely. The Gulf of Mexico is historically prone to tropical storm development in October due to warm waters and favorable atmospheric conditions. However, wind shear and the approach of a cold front may limit the development potential in this particular instance.
In addition to its potential impact on weather and safety, the system could also have implications for low Mississippi River levels, depending on its track and rainfall patterns in the region.
