SAF is an alternative to regular jet fuel that can reduce carbon emissions up to 80%. But supply is limited, and it can cost two to six times as much as regular jet fuel.
Still, SAF may be airlines’ best hope of meeting commitments to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. To move the industry toward that goal, the World Economic Forum’s Clean Skies for Tomorrow Coalition, which includes numerous airlines, has set a target of 10% SAF adoption by 2030.
“What we’re doing right now is standing up a brand-new industry,” said Sam Coleman, who manages sustainability communications for United Airlines.
SAF’s biggest attribute for now may be that it’s available and a known entity, said Dawna Rhoades, a professor of strategy and chair of the Department of Management, Marketing and Operations at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Florida.
Development of hydrogen- and electric-powered planes for long-haul flights is still too far off – and a risky investment if it doesn’t work out, Rhoades said. SAF made from waste fats, oils and greases can be used in existing planes.
“Almost every airline in the world has announced that they had some flight … where 25 to 30% of [fuel] was SAF fuels,” Rhodes said. “This is something that they know they can do … and you can plan out for.”
Airlines are planning for it. The SAF market size reached $1.1 billion in 2022, up from $50 million in 2019 — “incredible growth,” said Sara Bogdan, director of sustainability and environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) at JetBlue.
“The reduction in CO2 emissions over SAF’s life cycle, combined with its tested and approved ability to drop into current infrastructure, make it the most meaningful way we can address aviation emissions today while meeting the current demand for air travel,” Bogdan said.
Yet experts and industry insiders said more government involvement and cooperation within the industry are keys to making SAF prevalent enough to make a difference.
“To get the costs [of SAF] down, they really need to get the volume up,” Rhodes said.
Coalition building
The travel industry has pondered and promoted environmental initiatives for decades, Phocuswright senior research analyst Cathy Walsh wrote in the recent report “Green Travel Innovation Now (Yes, Now!).”
“While generally well intentioned, many of these efforts had limited impact or were discontinued altogether amid limited traveler interest,” Walsh wrote. “Facing mounting pressure to enact measurable change, travel companies must move beyond greenwashing and halfhearted environmental efforts.”
Although SAF is currently more expensive than traditional jet fuel, Walsh said the price is likely to stabilize over time.
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 accelerated the push for SAF by providing tax credits. States like Illinois and California also passed tax incentives.
United's Coleman believes airlines can reach their net-zero goals only by forming coalitions within the industry and with corporate partners, consumers and policymakers, with investments made now building “a foundation today that will pay off five, 10, 15 years down the road.”
“Even where we were on this conversation two years ago versus where we are today is huge,” he said.
United Airlines launched the Sustainable Investment Fund in February with more than $100 million from United and corporate partners. United also has invested in the production of more than 3 billion gallons of SAF, or 40-50% of the future market. Just 0.1% of United’s current fuel, or 3 million gallons, is currently SAF, according to Coleman.
“United is out in front of everybody else in terms of what we’re using and what we’re investing in,” he said. “But the only way this works is if everybody comes along with us.”
JetBlue’s Bogdan agreed.
“We can’t get there alone,” she said. “For the SAF market to grow and benefit from the economies of scale necessary for the industry to reach our shared goals, we need industry and policy support.”
Enlisting support from corporations, customers
JetBlue and Alaska Airlines are aiming for net-zero carbon emissions by 2040. Both airlines announced in March they had partnered with Shell Aviation to bring additional supply of SAF to Los Angeles International Airport.
JetBlue is doing its part “to encourage the strong and competitive SAF market,” Bogdan said, signing new contracts to increase its supply of SAF in the future. The company expects the SAF it uses this year will be twice what it used in 2021, though that still represents just 0.5% of its overall fuel use.
Bogdan said JetBlue also hopes to partner with corporations on the purchase of SAF certificates through its Sustainable Travel Partners program. Businesses can use the certificates in lieu of existing offsetting options to address their emissions, such as those produced through corporate travel.
Companies including Bank of America, Boom Supersonic, Boston Consulting Group, JPMorgan Chase, Meta and clean energy nonprofit RMI announced on April 4 they’d joined together through the Sustainable Aviation Buyers Alliance (SABA) to purchase SAF certificates at scale.
Some airlines are also inviting customers to contribute. In February, Lufthansa Group began offering “green fares” that include offsetting of emissions achieved through a combination of 20% SAF and 80% by contributing to climate protection projects, and JetBlue launched a new climate platform to help passengers contribute to the purchase of SAF. Multiple airlines now offer an option to customers to buy an add-on to their ticket that claims to reduce the environmental impact of their flights.
In the meantime, the dream persists that new technologies will produce a painless transition to a sustainable future. At JetBlue, for example, the company’s subsidiary JetBlue Ventures has invested in sustainability startups working to develop electric or hydrogen powered solutions.
“While we continue to be engaged with these technologies and their potential to disrupt the industry, we also recognize the need to make progress now,” Bogdan said.
“Given current technologies, commercial air travel still requires liquid-based fuels to fly,” she said. “While we wait for the maturation, certification and investment necessary to transition the industry to alternative fuel technologies, SAF is ready now to meaningfully address emissions for the industry.”
Tags:Dawna Rhoades, Sam Coleman, JetBlue, Sara Bogdan, Alaska Airlines, United Airlines, airlines, Lufthansa Group, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY, PHOCUSWRIGHT RESEARCH
