· IATA estimates domestic markets
will start to recover during H2 2021
·
Global regulations, passenger confidence and flexible
airline propositions key to sector recovery
·
Short-haul leisure travel to
recover first – massive pent-up demand
· Industry will fully recover by Q3 2024
The
health of the Middle East aviation sector was in focus this week at Arabian Travel Market 2021
which concludes today (Wednesday 19 May) at the Dubai World Trade Centre. Regional
experts were debating the state of the Middle East aviation industry and a
timetable for its recovery, particularly after significant announcements recently
by Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Dubai, relaxing travel and social restrictions.
Overall,
the panel was bullish about the recovery citing pent-up demand, which could
initially outstrip the availability of flights, until airlines resume their regular
pre-COVID scheduled services and routes, particularly on domestic and regional
routes which they agreed would be the first to recover.
“Domestic and
regional leisure passenger traffic will recover first. This
will be driven by massive pent-up demand, helped by relaxed ‘local’
restrictions and improved consumer confidence,” said Dabbas.
“This trend
will ultimately increase demand from airlines for smaller more cost-effective
aircraft - a maximum of 120 passengers, on direct routes, with increased
frequency of service,” he added.
To illustrate his point,
Dabbas pointed to the Air France-KLM pre-pandemic decision to order 30 A220
jets while announcing the retirement of their A380 fleet, in a bid to improve
the airline’s fuel efficiency and costs.
“IATA estimates
that domestic markets could recover to 96% of pre-crisis levels in the second
half of this year, a 48% improvement over 2020 and a return to pre-COVID levels
in the third quarter of 2024,” said Dabbas.
Talking about
improving consumer confidence, the panel agreed that there had to be some form
of global regulation, a collaboration between industry bodies, governments,
airports and airlines, that would be easy to understand and universal.
“As it stands
the quarantine rules and other COVID regulations are confusing, they need
simplifying. Governments should concentrate on PCR testing and vaccines. Passengers
need a secure source of information covering the flight and the destination,” said
Dabbas, “We are a one-world industry.”
Michalopoulos
added, “Vaccine passports are the way forward and it is also important that we
communicate just how safe onboard air conditioning is. Some people think that recirculated
air in planes is not safe, that simply isn’t true. Aircraft have filtering
systems which are as efficient as hospital ICUs.”
Looking
to the future, Brayford an industry stalwart whose company The Jetsets is
pioneering fractional ownership in private business jets, said that airlines
would need a clear plan moving forward.
“A
niche today might become a mainstream trend tomorrow, so no opportunity should
be overlooked, the way in which some airlines have supplemented reduced
passenger numbers with cargo is a good example. Flexibility and managing costs
will also be key.”
Running through until today (Wednesday
19 May) at the Dubai World Trade Centre, this year’s event has 1,300 exhibitors
from 62 countries including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Italy, Germany,
Cyprus, Egypt, Indonesisa, Malaysia, South Korea, the Maldives, the
Philippines, Thailand, Mexico and the US, underscoring the strength of ATM’s reach.
ATM 2021’s show theme is
appropriately ‘A New Dawn for Travel & Tourism’ and spread across nine
halls.
This year, for the first time in ATM history, a new hybrid format will mean a virtual ATM running a week later, from 24-26 May, to complement and reach a wider audience than ever before. ATM Virtual, which made its debut last year, proved to be a resounding success attracting 12,000 online attendees from 140 countries.
Tags: IATA, Middle East aviation, ATM Virtual, ATM 2021
