Sojern's insights are based on over 350 million traveller profiles and billions of travel intent signals, however, it does not capture one hundred percent of the travel market.
Travel Intent in Relation to Vaccine Announcements
The first ‘milestone’ vaccine announcement came on 9th November where Pfizer and BioNTech presented a vaccine that offers 90% protection against COVID-19. Since then we have heard more from the likes of Moderna and Oxford University on further vaccine developments. The news prompted an increase in ‘travel giant’s’ stock prices and seemingly had a positive impact on travel intent around the globe.
Sojern data shows that following the huge drop in European travel since the week of 18th October (a result of recently implemented lockdowns), the news of the vaccine boosted traveller enthusiasm and has resulted in a slight uptick in travel searches. Although the graph above shows weekly flight searches only, the same trend is being recorded with hotels.
The vaccine announcements in November also seem to have had an impact on future travel dates. When looking at searches made in September and October for future flight departure dates, they were pretty flat, with March showing a very slight uplift. However, the news appears to have accentuated this trend, highlighting a clear demand for travel in March 2021.
Amid all of the continued uncertainty around international travel, and even domestic travel with the recent implementation of lockdowns across Europe, it is expected that travel searches and bookings will be negatively affected. Taking a look at a selection of key Southern European destinations it is clear that travel intent generally peaked late June/early July (when restrictions were lifted and borders were opened), followed by a gradual decline, plateauing out in November. However, Portugal, Italy, and Spain have seen inbound travel intent slowly increase as of November, suggesting travellers are still optimistic that they will be able to visit these areas in the coming months.
Domestic Travel Across Italy Has Shown Strong Growth
Although domestic and international travel intent to Italy have also been impacted by COVID-19, it is good news that during the second round of lockdowns across the region, searches and bookings have not dropped as low as they did earlier this year in April during the first ‘wave’. As expected, domestic travel intent and confidence have grown faster than international travel. However, for both domestic and international, the increase in hotel booking volumes has been steadier, with more extreme peaks and drops recorded in searches. The peak in these searches is around the week commencing 9th August, slightly later than that noted in global flight searches as mentioned previously. This could be due to people searching for flight availability in advance, keeping an eye on new travel restrictions, and then searching and booking for their accommodation once they were more confident that travel would be permitted.
The recent vaccine announcements have had a positive impact on travel intent and travellers are looking ahead and planning their March 2021 trips. Key Southern European destinations experienced their highest inbound flight searches in June and July (since COVID-19 hit) and have since decreased. However, there are positive signs that these are beginning to grow again. Finally, Italians continue to plan and book their local trips, and international travel confidence is higher than it was during the first wave of COVID-19. These insights will hopefully help travel marketers shape their strategies as the industry recovers from this outbreak.
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