The
U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) projects international travel to
the United States will continue experiencing strong growth through
2018, based on the Office of Travel & Tourism Industries’ 2013
Spring Travel Forecast.
Building
on a record-breaking 2012, visitor volume is expected to rise 4.0
percent in 2013, reaching 69.6 million visitors who stay one or more
nights in the United States.
According
to the current forecast, the United States would see 3.7 percent to
4.2 percent annual growth rates in visitor volume over the 2013-2018
timeframe. By 2018 this growth would produce 84.6 million visitors, a
26 percent increase and 17.6 million additional visitors compared to
2012. The latest forecast reduces the compound annual growth rate
over the forecast period from 4.2 percent to 4.0 percent.
All
world regions are forecast to grow over the period, ranging from a
low for the Caribbean (+1%), to a high for the Middle East (+67%),
Asia (+60%), and South America (+52%). Among the top origin markets,
those with the largest forecasted total growth percentages are China
(+229%), Saudi Arabia (191%), Russian Federation (+79%), Brazil
(+66%), Argentina (+65%), and Columbia (+54%). Spain is the only top
40 visitor origin country forecast to decline from 2012 through 2018,
while growth from Jamaica and Italy is expected to be very small.
North
America will account for nearly half (42%) of the total visitor
growth of 17.6 million visitors by 2018. Asia (29% of total growth),
South America (13%), and Western Europe (8%) account for the bulk of
the remaining 58 percent of total growth in visitor volume expected
in 2018 compared to 2012 actual volume.
Four
countries are expected to account for 68 percent of the projected
growth from 2012 through 2018: Canada (30%), China (19%), Mexico
(12%) and Brazil (7%). Despite China and Brazil’s consistently high
growth rates, the traditional top origin countries will dictate the
ultimate accuracy of the forecast. In fact, the expected growth from
Canada is larger than the expected total visitor volume for any other
country by 2018, except Mexico.
ADDITIONAL
FORECAST DETAIL AND LINKS
Forecast
Highlights by Region
North
America: The
top two markets generating visitors to the United States - Canada and
Mexico - are forecast to increase in 2013 by 5 percent and 2 percent,
respectively, and to grow by 5.2 million and 2.2 million, or +23 and
+15 percent, respectively, from 2012 to 2018. Growth from both
countries would build on record-setting performances in 2012.
Europe: Europe
is projected to decline by less than 1 percent in 2013, followed by
low but increasing growth over the next five years. The low-growth
scenario for Europe is produced by dominant and low-growth Western
Europe. Annual growth from smaller Eastern Europe is expected to
range from 5.2 percent to 6.7 percent. By 2018 arrivals from Europe
are projected to be 14.1 million, or 13 percent higher than the 2012
total. The largest growth in Europe will come from the U.K.
(+555,000), Germany (+216,000), and France (+182,000). This growth
will reflect low-growth rates based on large volume bases.
Asia-Pacific: Asia
is projected to generate a visitor increase of 8 percent in 2013. The
region is projected to have consistently large increases over the
next few years for a total 60 percent increase from 2012 to 2018.
Japan, the largest Asian market and second-largest overseas market,
is forecast to increase by 2 percent in 2013 and at a similar level
through 2018 to produce total growth of 446,000 additional travelers
by the end of 2018. However, 2018 volume will remain well below the
1997 record level of 5.4 million. High growth rates and high growth
volumes are expected for China (30%), South Korea (8%), and India
(7%) in 2013. Similarly, these three countries are expected to have
among the largest total growth rates of any country from 2012 through
2018. China is expected to increase a total of 3.4 million visitors,
or 229 percent through 2018, the second-largest number of additional
visitors behind Canada. South Korea should produce an additional
540,000 visitors (+43%), while India could add 313,000 new visitors
(+43%). Oceania is expected to post 7 percent growth in 2013, and add
466,000 visitors (+35 percent) through 2018. Australia dominates the
Oceania region and is projected to increase 439,000 visitors, or 39
percent between 2012 and 2018.
South
America: South
America is projected to increase by 11 percent in 2013, the largest
growth rate of any region, and should remain a top producer of
additional travelers for the next several years. By 2018 South
America should generate 2.3 million more visitors, a 52 percent
increase compared to 2012. Brazil, the largest source market in the
region, is expected to build on its 2012 record-breaking performance,
and increase 14 percent in 2013 and produce 2.0 million visitors. By
2018 the United States could host 3.0 million Brazilian visitors, a
66 percent increase over 2012. Venezuela, Argentina, and Columbia, in
2012 ranked 13, 14, and 16, respectively, are forecast to have high
but declining growth rates through 2018. Argentina should produce the
greatest growth of 397,000 visitors (+65%), followed closely by
Colombia’s additional 325,000 visitors (+54%) and Venezuela’s
potential growth of 195,000 visitors (+29%).
The
U.S. travel forecast was prepared by research staff in the Department
of Commerce/Office of Travel & Tourism Industries using economic
/ demographic / social factors, DOC historical visitation trends,
input from the DOC U.S. & Foreign Commercial Service staff
abroad, and numerous other miscellaneous sources. The DOC Travel
Forecast is updated in May and October each year
