IPK
International released Global Travel Trends for 2012 – 2013. Trend
2013: Continuation of positive trend in the “New” economies;
moderate prospects for the “Old” economies.
Violence
and political unrest dominated the headlines in a number of important
destination countries, including Egypt and Greece – which at times
led to travelers staying away in droves. Other destinations such as
Mexico (drug war) and Israel (Palestinian conflict), which likewise
have to contend with image problems due to negative press, were
nevertheless able to record growth.
A
similar paradoxical picture is seen with respect to the markets of
origin.
An
increasing number of countries are not able to pay their debts, the
national debt crisis has not reached its end and the resulting
negative impacts on travel behavior; i.e. the so-called “downward
mobility” in the “Old” economies – the traditional national
economies of Western Europe, the USA and Japan – cannot be
excluded.
On
the other hand, an “upward mobility” is seen in the “New”
economies such as Brazil, Mexico, Poland, Russia, China, etc. Incomes
are doubling in these countries almost every eight years, travel is
increasingly becoming part of the lifestyle of their newly emerging
middle class.
All
told, 2012 was another year for the record books as far as worldwide
overnight outbound travel. IPK’s World Travel Monitor® identified
growth of +4% to approx. 840 million outbound trips. Overnight
accommodation (6.8 billion nights / +2%) and spending (913 billion
Euro / +7%) likewise recorded record highs in 2012.
“Despite
the sometimes very different developments in the destination
countries and in the countries of origin, all aspects of outbound
travel – number of trips, overnight stays and spending – once
again reached record highs in 2012,” notes Rolf Freitag, CEO of IPK
International.
As
far as the outlook for 2013, the current ambivalence will continue.
Rolf Freitag adds: “We anticipate a 7% increase in the outbound
travel demand from the “New” economy countries of Asia. At the
same time, we’re estimating just a 2% increase for the “Old”
economy countries of Europe and even zero growth for North America.”
Europeans
increasingly leaning toward city trips
Europeans
took more trips in 2012 than in 2011 – but as the 2012 World Travel
Monitor® data shows – travel volume still only flirted with the
all-time high set in 2008. Altogether, the number of outbound trips
the Europeans took in 2012 rose 2% to 421 million, following a 3%
increase in 2011. While the number of overnight stays remained stable
at 3.5 billion nights, outbound travel expenditures rose 2% to 353
billion Euro.
In
terms of last year’s holiday types, the Europeans most frequently
took sun and beach holidays, although growth of just 1% was achieved.
In contrast, at -12%, the number of tours (round trips) fell sharply.
Conversely, increasing 13%, there was strong growth in city trips.
Non-Euro-countries
booming, large source markets stagnating, crisis countries weakening
As
IPK’s World Travel Monitor® figures show, there were highs and
lows across Europe’s most important source markets in 2012. Russia
recorded the largest increase in Europe last year with a rise of 14%.
Swiss and Norwegian outbound travel also increased significantly
(each 7%). Among the highest-volume European source markets, France
did not record any growth last year (0%) while Germany and the UK
both increased by 1%. In contrast, the so-called Euro-crisis
countries posted clearly negative outbound travel figures: Spain
(-5%), Italy (-6%), Portugal (-7%) or Greece (-7%).
German
travel market remains positive
In
line with the World Travel Monitor® results, continued positive
development prevailed last year throughout the total overall German
market (domestic and outbound travel). The Germans took 329 million
domestic and outbound trips in 2012 (+3%) and at 1.6 billion, the
number of overnights also came in 3% higher.
Important
to the tourism sector: the number of German holiday trips increased
by 2% and now accounts for 45% of the entire travel market. Business
trips (+6%) and private trips (+2%) also developed positively. With a
6% increase to 144 billion Euro, the growth rate for the Germans’
total travel expenditures exceeded those for travel volume and
overnight stays.
All
in all, there was a clear trend toward domestic travel with an
increase of 3% (to 256 million trips) compared to just 1% growth (to
73.5 million trips) for outbound travel.
This
also holds true for the Germans’ holiday trips: There were 4% more
holidays taken domestically (to 96.2 million trips) compared to the
holiday trips taken to other countries which, at 52.6 million,
remained unchanged from the previous year’s level. “We’ve been
observing this trend of more trips taken here at home coupled with
fewer trips outside of Germany for several years now,” says IPK
head Rolf Freitag.
Nor
was there any change in the Germans’ top outbound holiday
destinations: Austria again took first place in 2012 (17% market
share), followed by Spain (16%) and Italy (13%). All three holiday
destinations were able to hold onto their market shares with
single-digit growth rates. Other popular outbound holiday
destinations for the Germans last year were Turkey (8%), France (6%)
and the Netherlands (6%). As regards the domestic destinations,
Bavaria still remains the absolute market leader with 20 million
holiday trips. Bavaria is twice as popular as the second and third
ranking states of Lower Saxony and Baden-Württemberg.
2013
Outlook
Although
the global economy seems to be heading toward recession, IPK
anticipates a 3% worldwide growth in tourism for 2013. The tourism
world will thereby be further divided.
In
Asia‘s emerging markets, tourism demand will increase by 7%. The
traditional European and North American travel markets will remain in
their consolidation phases with a moderate growth rate of
approximately 2% for Europe and zero growth (0%) for North America.
Social
media will continue to gain ever more importance in the tourism
sector. Nearly every second European outbound traveler is part of the
social media community and 14% of them already use social media as a
source of information for travel planning and realization.
