Visitor
volume in 2012 is expected to finish at plus 6 percent and reach
66.48 million visitors who stay one or more nights in the United
States. This growth would build on the 4.9 percent increase in
arrivals in 2011, which resulted in a record 62.7 million visitors.
According
to the current forecast, the United States would see 3.6 percent to
4.3 percent annual growth rates in
visitor volume over the 2013-2017 timeframe. By 2017 this growth
would produce 80.48 million visitors, a 28 percent increase and
nearly 18 million additional visitors compared to 2011.
All
world regions are forecast to grow over the period, ranging from a
low for Central America (+1%), to a high for Asia (+64%), South
America (+60%), and the Middle East (+55%). Countries with the
largest forecasted total growth percentages are China (+259%), Brazil
(+83%), Argentina (+67%), Russian Federation (+55%), and South Korea
(+51%). Jamaica is the only top 40 visitor origin country forecast to
decline from 2011 through 2017.
The
North America world region will account for half (42%) of the total
visitor growth of 17.8 million visitors by 2017. Asia (26% of total
growth), South America (13%), and Western Europe (12%) account for
the bulk of the remaining 52% of total growth in visitor volume
forecast in 2017 compared to 2011 actual volume.
Six
countries are expected to account for 72 percent of the projected
growth from 2011 through 2017, including Canada (29%), China (16%),
Mexico (13%), Brazil (7%), United Kingdom (4%), and Japan (4%).
Although China and Brazil continue to get the bulk of media attention
because of their consistent and very
high growth rates, the traditional top
origin countries will dictate the ultimate accuracy of the forecast.
In fact, the expected growth from Canada is larger than the expected
total visitor volume for any other country in 2017, except Mexico.
The
U.S. travel forecast was prepared by research staff in
the Department of Commerce/Office of Travel &
Tourism Industries using economic / demographic / social factors, DOC
historical visitation trends, input from the DOC Foreign Commercial
Service staff abroad, and numerous other miscellaneous sources. The
DOC Travel Forecast is updated in May and October each
year.
Forecast
Highlights by Region
North
America: The
top two markets generating visitors to the United States - Canada and
Mexico - are both forecast to increase in 2012 by 5 percent, and to
grow by 5.1 million and 2.3 million, or +24 and +17 percent,
respectively, from 2011 to 2017. Canada's annual growth would build
on the 2011 record of 21.34 million visitors and Mexico's growth
would establish new records beginning in 2013.
Europe: Visitors
from Europe are expected to increase by 2 percent in 2012, followed
by slightly higher growth over the next five years. By 2017 arrivals
from Europe are projected to be 15.0 million, or 19 percent higher
than the 2011 total. The largest growth in Europe will come from the
U.K. (+697,000), Germany (+483,000), and France (+327,000).
Asia-Pacific: Asia
is projected to generate a visitor increase of 14 percent in 2012.
The region is projected to have larger increases over the next few
years for a total 64 percent increase from 2011 to 2017. Japan, the
largest Asian market and second-largest overseas market, is forecast
to increase by 9 percent in 2012, then return to low growth between
+1% and +3 % annual, to produce total growth of 661,000 additional
travelers by the end of 2017. Very highgrowth rates and
high growth volumes are expected for China (41%), South Korea (12%),
and India (12%) in 2012. Similarly, these three countries are
expected to have among the largest total growth rates of
any country over the 2011-2017 timeframe. China is expected to
increase a total of 2.8 million visitors, or 259 percent through
2017, the second-largest number of additional visitors behind Canada.
South Korea should produce an additional 571,000 visitors (+51%),
while India could add 312,000 new visitors (+47%). Oceania is
expected to post 7 percent growth in 2012, and add 508,000 visitors,
or 41 percent, through 2017. Australia dominates the Oceania region
and is projected to increase 476,000 visitors, or 46 percent between
2011 and 2017.
South
America: South
America is projected to increase by 15 percent in 2012, the largest
growth rate of
any region, and should remain a top
producer in
additional travelers for the next several years. By 2017 South
America will generate nearly 2.3 million more visitors, a 60 percent
increase compared to 2011. Brazil, the largest source market in the
region, is expected to build on its 2011 record-breaking performance,
and increase 18 percent in 2012 and produce 1.78 million visitors. By
2017 the United States could host
a record
2.8 million Brazilian visitors, an 83% increase over 2011. Venezuela,
Argentina, and Columbia, ranked 15, 16, and 17, respectively, in
2011, are forecast to have similar high growth rates for
2012, and similar growth trends through 2017. Argentina may produce
the greatest growth of 344,000 visitors (+67%), but followed closely
by Venezuela's additional 254,000 visitors (+45%) and Colombia's
potential growth of 212,000 visitors (+43%).
