The
World Tourism Organization and the consultancy IPK International
present cautiously optimistic forecasts for 2013 – two to four per
cent growth – a top ten placing for Germany as a destination
The
global financial and economic crisis clearly has not dampened
people’s desire to travel. According to the consultancy IPK
International and the World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO), despite
economically difficult times, in 2013 international tourism arrivals
will once again grow in the order of two to four per cent.
Speaking
at the 20th World Travel Monitor Forum in Pisa, Rolf Freitag, CEO of
IPK International, said: “Never before have so many people
travelled and never before have they had so much money at their
disposal as this past year, in 2012.“ In Rolf Freitag’s view the
continuing upward trend in the global travel industry is due mainly
to an economic boom in the BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India,
China and in other developing countries. “Significant income growth
in countries such as Russia and India and the emergence of a new
middle class in almost every BRIC country has sparked a desire to
travel which prevails in times of crisis.“
According
to Michel Julian of the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the
global tourism industry has so far proved resilient in the face of
the current economic situation. UNWTO is optimistic that worldwide,
international tourist arrivals in 2012 will grow by three to four per
cent. “That is quite remarkable, especially in view of the current
economic challenges around the world “, Michel Julian added.
According to UNWTO, emerging countries in Asia and the Americas in
particular will contribute to this increase, whereas growth in Europe
and North America is expected to continue at a more moderate pace.
According
to the study by IPK International, this year around 170 million more
trips will be undertaken globally compared with 2011. Worldwide,
according to IPK, a total of 6.8 billion trips will take place this
year, 2.5 per cent more than in 2011. Domestic travel will grow by
two per cent, reaching 5.77 billion. Travel abroad will rise by four
per cent to 1.03 billion trips.
A
fact worth noting is the increase in travel activity in South America
(+12 per cent), Africa (+ 9 per cent), Asia and Oceania (+7 per
cent), as well as in Japan (+13 per cent). In 2012, trips abroad in
the USA are forecast to grow in the order of three per cent, and
foreign travel in Europe by two per cent.
According
to the international tourism experts at IPK, Germany was a very
popular destination again: in 2011, Germany attracted 48 million
visitors and was the top ten’s third most popular destination
behind the USA (56 million) and Spain (51 million). It was followed
by France, Italy and China.
According
to Rolf Freitag, 2013 has many unknown risks in store. “Besides
existing challenges such as the European debt crisis, drastic rises
in energy costs and in some cases food costs will also impact
significantly on the travel industry.“ However, he added that
people were more relaxed about such crises than in previous years.
Worldwide, only 31 per cent of the participants in the IPK study said
this would affect their travel plans abroad, as opposed to 32 per
cent last year.
Launched
by the consultancy IPK International and sponsored by ITB Berlin,
every year at the World Travel Monitor Forum in Pisa 50 tourism
experts and scientists from around the world present current
statistics and the latest trends in international tourism.
Dr.
Martin Buck, director of the Competence Center Travel and Logistics,
Messe Berlin: “It is both surprising and encouraging to see that
people around the world regard travelling as part of their lifestyle,
something they would not wish to be without even in times of crisis.
Both the statistics for the BRIC countries and in particular for
Germany as a destination are impressive.“
Details
of the studies will be presented by the ITB World Travel Trends
Report, which will be published in early December
at www.itb-berlin.com
.
The
report is
based
on the assessments of 50 tourism experts from 30 countries, on a
special IPK International trend analysis undertaken in leading source
markets, and on core data supplied by the World Travel Monitor®,
recognised as the largest continuous survey of global travel trends
in some 60 source countries. The findings reflect trends which
emerged during the first eight months of 2012. At the ITB Berlin
Convention Rolf Freitag, CEO of IPK International, will present the
findings for the entire year, as well as the latest forecasts for
2013.
