Since 2023, the third quarter has consistently been the weakest performing period of the year. While the first half of 2025 showed comparatively solid growth, Q3 reflected a pause as economic headwinds- including inflation and corporate spending caution—became more pronounced.
Key exhibition industry findings
Slight pullback, but more events surpass pre-pandemic benchmarks
Although the Total Index declined 2.7 percentage points from Q2 2025, 39.3% of events in the CEIR sample exceeded their pre-pandemic performance, up from 37.3% in Q3 2024. This suggests that while aggregate indicators softened, individual events continue to gain traction.
Exhibitors remain the strongest segment
Of the four components of the Index:
- Exhibitors: –5.0% vs 2019 (strongest performance)
- Net Square Feet: –8.3%
- Attendees: –12.3% (reflecting tighter corporate travel budgets)
- Real Revenues: –18.2% (continuing the weakening trend seen since Q1 2025)
Economic conditions now the top concern
In a shift from Q2, organizers cited economic factors – especially inflation and global uncertainty – as the most significant constraints on event performance. Federal policy concerns remain relevant but have been overtaken by broader macroeconomic pressures.
Event cancellations remain low
In-person cancellations dropped to 0.5% in Q3, down from 1.5% in Q2, demonstrating stability in the event calendar even as market conditions softened.
Key economic outlook findings
- Moderate U.S. growth forecast for 2026: Real GDP growth is projected at 2.4%, despite the recent U.S. government shutdown, which reduced Q4 2025 GDP by roughly 0.8 percentage points. A partial rebound is expected in early 2026.
- Labour market softening: The unemployment rate climbed to 4.5% in October 2025, reflecting nonfarm payroll losses of 85,000. However, private-sector hiring remained modestly positive at +40,000 jobs.
- Inflation expected to ease: Inflation is projected to average 2.7% in 2026, supported by supply-chain cost improvements linked to recent U.S. – China trade agreements.
- Federal interest rates trending downward: The Fed’s policy rate is expected to end 2025 at 3.9%, while the 10-year Treasury yield is projected around 4.4%, reflecting the Fed’s balancing act between inflation control and economic support.
“The Q3 2025 results reflect an exhibition industry navigating a complex transition from policy-focused concerns to broader macroeconomic challenges,” said Nancy Drapeau, IPC, CEIR Vice President of Research. “While we’ve seen a modest pullback, the increase in events surpassing pre-pandemic levels shows adaptability across the sector.”
Marsha Flanagan, M.Ed., CEM, President and CEO of IAEE, added: “Despite the headwinds, our industry’s foundation remains resilient. Strong exhibitor participation – just 5% below 2019 – demonstrates that companies still value face-to-face engagement. With expectations of moderate growth and easing inflation in 2026, the sector is positioned for gradual strengthening.”
CEIR also noted ongoing consumer spending divergence, with high-income households driving much of the economic activity – an important factor influencing both attendance and exhibitor investment.
Tags: Marsha Flanagan, IAEE, Nancy Drapeau, Center for Exhibition Industry Research (CEIR)
