Airfare affordability continues to be a structural challenge for tourism development in Latin America, as reflected in the analysis of airfare forecasts for the coming six months conducted by our insights team. The data reveals a mixed picture, with moderate increases, strategic readjustments, and steep declines, influenced by geopolitical factors and market dynamics that could redefine regional tourism competitiveness through the end of 2025.
We analysed average airfare forecasts for travel over the next six months on all regional, US, and European routes connecting seven key destinations in Latin America: Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Mexico. The analysis compares the projected prices published by online travel agencies (OTAs) for direct one-way flights with respect to the same period in 2024.
During the Wings of Change Americas conference, organized by IATA in Bogotá on June 25 and 26, air industry experts highlighted the economic impact of air travel in the region, accounting for 8.3 million jobs and USD 240 billion in GDP. However, according to IATA data, Latin American citizens take an average of just 0.65 flights per year, well below the 2.5 flights in North America or the 4.5 in Spain.
“Air connectivity provides opportunities for economic growth, fosters regional mobility, and strengthens Latin America’s attractiveness as a tourist destination,” explains Carlos Cendra, Partner and Director of Marketing and Communications at Mabrian. “To boost air travel demand in Latin America, it is crucial to expand connectivity networks, accommodating more players and alternatives, and making air travel more accessible.”
Moderate increases and strategic adjustments in domestic and regional fares
According to Mabrian’s analysis, the forecasted performance of domestic routes airfares is mixed. While Argentina and Mexico recorded year-on-year declines of -10%, and Colombia -6.6%, countries such as Chile and Brazil experienced increases exceeding +10%, of +11.3% and +12.2% respectively. In Peru, domestic prices remain relatively stable, with a variation of just +1.7%.
The average price of domestic flights in countries with more extensive national networks is around USD 100: this is the case in Uruguay (USD 98), Argentina (USD 105), Mexico (USD 128), and Brazil (USD 135). They remain lower in Colombia (USD 83), Chile (USD 69), and Peru (USD 70). According to Cendra, this “benefits these destinations, which are managing to capture a greater share of regional demand.”
Regarding international routes within Latin America, fares also vary, ranging from an average of USD 245 in Colombia, USD 309 in Peru, USD 419 in Brazil, and USD 474 in Mexico. In the year-over-year comparison, average fare increases stand out in Colombia (+8.6%) and Uruguay (+7.8%), while Argentina (+1.6%), Peru (+2.3%), and Chile (+3.6%) show more moderate increases.
On the other hand, average flight prices to other Latin American countries are projected to decrease in Mexico (-7.1%) and Brazil (-8.4%), these being the only markets where average fares for interregional connections exceed USD 400.
Airfares to the U.S. decline, Europe’s Are on the Rise
“Our data intelligence reveals a clear trend: average fares on routes connecting Latin America with the United States are consistently decreasing, in some cases by as much as -50% compared to the previous year,” states Cendra. All the routes analysed show year-over-year decreases in average fares, some very pronounced, such as Chile (-50.3%), Brazil (-25.3%), and Argentina (-24.9%). More moderate declines are also observed in Colombia (-14.4%), Mexico (-9.2%), and Peru (-8%).
“Geopolitical factors are influencing this atypical behaviour, which represents an opportunity to stimulate US visits to Latin America toward the end of 2025.” According to the Mabrian expert, “this is also contributing to boost outbound tourism, both domestic and regional.”
On the other hand, fares on routes connecting Latin America with Europe are increasing in almost all markets. The most moderate year-on-year increases are seen in Peru (+2.4%), Chile (+2.5%), Argentina (+4.4%), and Uruguay (+4.5%), while the most significant increases are observed in Colombia (+13%) and Mexico (+16.5%). Brazil is the only country that bucks this trend, with a -6.5% drop in average fares to Europe.
Tags: Accessible airfares, Latin America international destinations, travel and tourism industry, IATA Wings Change Americas conference in Bogota (Colombia), Marbian
