Euromonitor International released this week the new Travel Forecast Model which offers insight into the drivers behind travel growth and decline and how potential economic and country-level shocks could impact global travel.
The Travel Forecast Model is to answer questions such as following :
- In the event of a no-deal Brexit scenario, what would the impact be on UK arrivals?
- Which continent will see the highest growth in outbound departures to 2030?
- Of the world's top 50 destinations, which will see the strongest forecast growth in average spend by Chinese tourists?
- Which countries would see the biggest decline in demand in the possible event of a terrorist attack in Turkey in 2017?
For Turkey especially the model forecasts that in the unfortunate case of a severe terrorist attack in 2017, Europe would show the biggest decline in terms of demand. Key source markets such as Germany, Russia and the UK would show the highest drop in terms of arrivals. The volatility of the market will fuel concerns among travellers regarding safety in the country. Such events would also negatively impact perceptions among travellers, which could continue mid- to long-term if adequate security measures are not taken by the local government.
Nadejda Popova, Travel Project Manager at Euromonitor International comments: “Turkey has been one of the hotspots in terms of the tourism proposition in Europe; however, the economic crisis in Russia, political uncertainties within the Middle East region and increasing security issues, such as the rise of terrorist attacks in the country, negatively impacted inbound arrivals to this destination. Adopting the right strategies in times of such disruption is vital for the financial health of any business. Identifying substitute destinations where demand can be redirected with sufficient capacity thus becomes key in the fight of the fittest for market dominance.”
The fall in consumer demand for holidays to Turkey will result in growing demand for other “safer” destinations. Long haul trips could benefit as prices rise for European resorts, making destinations further away seem value for money by comparison.
Discounting is likely to continue, as Turkey is a popular location for European holidaymakers, but many companies might shift capacity from this market in the event of a terrorist attack in the country and focus on other destinations.
