Embraer has released its 2015-2034 Market Outlook, which details forecasted deliveries of new aircraft over the next twenty years. The report focuses on the 70 to 130-seat capacity category which is valued at US$300 billion during that period. Embraer projects deliveries of 6,350 jets - 2,250 units in the 70 to 90-seat segment and 4,100 units in the 90 to 130-seat segment.
The 70 to 130-seat jet world fleet-in-service will increase from 2,590 aircraft in 2014 to 6,490 by 2034, the fastest growing among all aircraft seat segments. Replacement of ageing aircraft will represent 39% of new deliveries and 61% will represent market growth.
70 to 130-Seat Jet Deliveries – Market Forecast by Region
| Region | Deliveries | Share |
| North America | 2,060 | 32% |
| Europe | 1,160 | 18% |
| China | 1,020 | 16% |
| Latin America | 720 | 11% |
| Asia Pacific | 550 | 9% |
| CIS | 380 | 6% |
| Africa | 240 | 4% |
| Middle East | 220 | 4% |
| World (2015-2034) | 6,350 |
The capacity discipline strategy followed by North American carriers has proven to be very effective in generating higher profits. As airlines become more attractive to investors, Embraer also sees a shift in the main business goals from unit cost and market share to unit profit and return on investment.
“Right-sized aircraft can regularly generate higher revenue and profit per seat since they have fewer available seats allocated for low-fare passengers. High efficiency of assets is essential to sound financial performance. Those attributes — combined with hub-and-spoke efficiency, narrow-body aircraft complement and new market development — will generate significant demand for new aircraft in the segment”, explained Paulo Cesar Silva, President & CEO, Embraer Commercial Aviation.
Worldwide demand for air transport, measured by revenue passenger kilometers, will increase 2.6 fold at an average of 4.9% annually through 2034. China and the Middle East will be the fastest-growing markets with an average annual RPK growth rate of around 7.0%, followed by the emerging regions of Latin America with 5.9%, Africa with 5.4%, Asia Pacific and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) with around 5.0% and the mature markets of Europe and North America with 3.9% and 2.7%, respectively.
