The
Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) and The Hong Kong Polytechnic
University's School of Hotel and Tourism Management (PolyU) released
their joint publication, the Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts
2013-2017.
The
new forecasts on the complete visitor economy will make it easier for
tourism organisations to anticipate demand trends and manage supply.
For
the first time, PATA's Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2013-2017 have
been produced in collaboration with The Hong Kong Polytechnic
University's School of Hotel and Tourism Management. The annual and
quarterly forecasts cover a five-year horizon (up from three) and
include price elasticity variables for most of the destinations
covered.
High-level
snapshots from the forecasts show that:
•
Visitor
arrivals to the Asia Pacific region will continue to grow with an
average annual growth rate of 4.1% over the period 2013-2017 and
reach 581 million by 2017
•
Northeast
Asia will maintain a dominant position in the inbound market of Asia
Pacific, and its market share will reach 53.52% by 2017
•
China
will continue to be the top inbound destination in the Asia Pacific,
peaking at 147.4 million visitors in 2017
•
Hong
Kong SAR will surpass the USA to be the second largest inbound
destination in Asia Pacific in 2015
•
Visitor
arrivals to the Asia Pacific from China will exceed 100 million by
2015
•
Cambodia,
the Maldives, Chinese Taipei, Bhutan and Mongolia are the top five
fastest growing destinations in terms of visitor arrivals over the
period 2013-2017.
Taken
together these projections provide essential information for tourism
planners and operators alike.
The
forecasts aim to help destinations set strategy for the coming years
by supporting the complete visitor economy in both long-term decision
and policy making by predicting arrivals, tourism receipts and
departures according to country/region of origins for 41
destinations.
“I
am delighted to recommend these next generation forecasts to PATA
members and associates. The scope and quality of the forecasts will
add value to our many different members across 17 time zones and many
different functional groups,” said Mr Martin J Craigs, PATA CEO.
“We
are very pleased to be part of the new PATA NextGen forecasting
initiative, as transferring our knowledge to practice has been high
on our school's research agenda,” said Professor Kaye Chon, Dean of
the School of Hotel and Tourism Management at The Hong Kong
Polytechnic University.
Published
annually with a quarterly breakdown, the Asia Pacific Visitor
Forecasts 2013-2017 will include information about visitor arrivals
to select PATA member economies from key source markets, visitor
expenditures in PATA member economies, and visitor departures of
member economies. The annual edition of the forecasts will also
feature reports analysing the forecasts and their implications,
taking into account particular trends for certain regions.
Though
it is clear that demand for inbound and outbound travel in Asia
Pacific is growing, it is the details shown by forecasts of travel
demand that will guide the visitor economy in the measurement of
tourist arrivals and expenditure. Forecasts can help justify
decision-making in terms of planning investments in visitor
infrastructure, human resource management, marketing resource
allocation decisions and new product development.
The
forecasts have been created using a combination of statistical and
judgmental methodologies, with a view to generating more accurate and
reliable forecasts. In other words, this forecasting system
incorporates advanced econometric techniques as well as expert
opinion in forecasting the demand for travel from various source
markets to destinations within the Asia Pacific region. The outputs
of this forecasting system will provide useful information on the
future trends of the complete visitor economy (measured by tourist
arrivals, departures and tourist expenditures).
PATA
government members and Premier Partners will have access to the
forecasts included in their membership benefits through PATA's
insights tool, PATAmPOWER. Other members may purchase the forecasts.
Customized forecasts are also available upon request, for an
additional fee.
