West-to-East traffic shift continues for summer 2012

Brussels, Belgium – Over the summer months (June to September included), European traffic has been close to the last forecast published in May 2012. Nevertheless, high oil prices, a weaker economic outlook and other factors have all led to a downwards revision of the forecast. The forecast update is for 1.5% fewer flights in 2012 and a stagnation in 2013.

The number of flights in European airspace in summer 2012 fell by 1.5% when compared to summer 2011. This hides large disparities between different types of market segments with some posting growth and others large decreases.
The overall drop in the summer traffic for 2012 was driven by a fall (-3.7%) in traditional scheduled flights. This was only partially offset by an increase in the two other main categories: low-cost (up 4.4%) and charter (up 3.9%).
Table 1: Breakdown of traffic per market segment

Market Segment	Average daily flights	Market share	Growth on 2011
All-Cargo	944	3.2%	-5.7%
Business Aviation	2,157	7.3%	-3.5%
Charter	2,044	6.9%	3.9%
Low-cost	7,847	26.7%	4.4%
Other	1,065	3.6%	-10.6%
Traditional Scheduled	15,382	52.2%	-3.7%
TOTAL	29,439	100%	-1.5%

A further analysis reveals the recent pattern experienced in European airspace: traffic is gradually shifting from West to East. The busiest airports on a daily basis depict an imbalanced picture as half of them grow and the remaining shrink. The shift is illustrated by two airports in opposite regions. Madrid Barajas (-12.1%) and Istanbul-Ataturk (+12.3%) show the biggest changes in percentage points.
Table 2: 10 busiest departure airports per average daily departures

Rank	Departure airport	Average daily departures	% change vs. Summer 2011
1	PARIS CH DE GAULLE	716	-3.6%
2	FRANKFURT MAIN	700	1.6%
3	LONDON/HEATHROW	666	-1.4%
4	SCHIPHOL AMSTERDAM	649	0.4%
5	MUENCHEN 2	564	-3.0%
6	MADRID BARAJAS	538	-12.1%
7	ISTANBUL-ATATURK	518	12.3%
8	ROME FIUMICINO	485	-1.7%
9	BARCELONA	459	0.7%
10	LONDON/GATWICK	393	0.0%

Spain and Turkey were also the countries with the highest variability in terms of city pairs. Istanbul-Izmir grew remarkably compared to the previous year. Two major Spanish pairs showed substantial decreases: Barcelona-Madrid and Barcelona-Palma. These were the only three pairs to have fluctuations of over ±10%.
Table 3: 10 busiest airport pairs per number of daily flights

Rank	Departure airport	Arrival airport	Average daily movements (both directions)	% change vs. Summer 2011
1	ISTANBUL-ATATURK	IZMIR-ADNAN-MENDERES	64	13.8%
2	BARCELONA	MADRID BARAJAS	55	-22.5%
3	ISTANBUL-ATATURK	ANTALYA	50	3.5%
4	PARIS ORLY	TOULOUSE BLAGNAC	48	5.3%
5	PARIS ORLY	NICE	47	4.3%
6	BARCELONA	PALMA DE MALLORCA	45	-10.4%
7	OSLO/GARDERMOEN	TRONDHEIM/VAERNES	45	4.1%
8	OSLO/GARDERMOEN	BERGEN/FLESLAND	44	-2.0%
9	ROME FIUMICINO	MILANO LINATE	43	0.2%
10	OSLO/GARDERMOEN	STAVANGER/SOLA	41	4.6%

Some of the main European hubs appear on the top 10 departure airports most affected by all-causes of delay. During the summer, airports situated in typical tourist destinations joined the list. With the exception of Paris Charles de Gaulle, all the departure airports among the top 10 most affected are to be found in the UK or the Iberian peninsula. The summer 2012 average all-cause delay per flight was 9.4 min which represents a reduction of 18% compared to 2011. The percentage of flights delayed by more than 5 minutes also fell by 3.8% year on year.
Table 4: 10 airports with highest departure delay per flight

Rank	Departure airport	Average Delay per flight (min)	% of delayed flights
1	LISBOA	19.0	60.1%
2	MANCHESTER	16.4	46.7%
3	LONDON/GATWICK	13.7	48.3%
4	PALMA DE MALLORCA	12.7	46.4%
5	IBIZA	12.7	40.9%
6	LONDON/HEATHROW	12.4	48.1%
7	PARIS CH DE GAULLE	12.0	52.3%
8	ALICANTE	12.0	44.0%
9	MALAGA	11.9	41.8%
10	LONDON/LUTON	11.9	40.4%

For more information on forecasts, please refer to the Seven-Year Flight Forecast – Flight Movements 2012-2018.

Related links

Statistics and Forecasts service (STATFOR)
Central Office for Delay Analysis (CODA)

Source: EUROCONTROL