The latest figures follow a 5.5% decline in total international arrivals during 2025, according to US government data. Meanwhile, the World Travel & Tourism Council estimated international visitor spending in the United States fell by $8.4 billion in 2025 compared with 2024.
The decline comes as the administration seeks to increase annual international visitation to 100 million by 2030. However, the latest arrival figures show continued weakness across several major overseas source markets.
Which source markets recorded the largest declines?
Western Europe remained the largest overseas source region, with approximately 8.59 million arrivals in January–September. That represented an 8.7% decline compared with the same period in 2025. Asia recorded approximately 6.41 million arrivals, down 6.1% year on year.
Among individual markets, Germany recorded a 14.9% decline during the first nine months, while France fell 15.3%. South Korean arrivals decreased 19.7%, and Indian arrivals declined 9%. Italy recorded a 12.2% decrease, while Spain fell 5%.
September figures showed a similar pattern. Overseas arrivals totalled approximately 2.7 million, representing a 4.3% year-on-year decline. Western Europe accounted for nearly three-quarters of the monthly reduction, according to travel-industry publication Skift.
Nevertheless, several markets recorded growth. During January–September, arrivals from Colombia increased 14.1%, while Ecuador grew 14.9%. Japan recorded a 1.7% increase, and Brazil rose 1.3%.
How are US immigration policies affecting inbound tourism?
The Financial Times identified stricter immigration enforcement, increased border scrutiny, visa revocations and the strong US dollar among factors associated with weaker international visitation. These factors have also featured in coverage by Reuters and specialist travel-industry media.
On 20 October, Reuters reported that the US State Department had confirmed more than 300,000 visa revocations since President Donald Trump began his second term in January 2025. The department said the measures addressed legal violations, fraud and national security concerns. The administration has also expanded social media screening for immigrants and visa applicants.
Travel-industry representatives have raised concerns about the effects of entry requirements on international demand. In September, the US Travel Association and executives from major travel companies met with President Trump to discuss reversing the decline in overseas visitation.
The discussion included a proposed target of 100 million international visitors annually by 2030. Participants also addressed visa processing delays, visitor bond requirements and measures intended to improve airport processing. Reuters reported that the visitor bond programme applied to travellers from 50 countries, with industry representatives citing reduced arrivals from affected markets.
The US target for international visitors by 2030
The US Travel Association has promoted a goal of attracting 100 million international visitors each year by 2030. The initiative followed a decline in total international arrivals from 72.3 million in 2024 to 68.3 million in 2025.
However, the official NTTO forecast projects total international visitation to reach 70.5 million in 2026 and 85.2 million in 2030. The forecast therefore remains below the industry’s proposed target.
The NTTO expects international arrivals to increase by 3.2% in 2026, followed by projected growth of 5.2% in 2027 and 6.1% in 2028. Its forecast places visitation at 82.3 million in 2029 before reaching 85.2 million in 2030.
The projections incorporate expected travel demand associated with major events, including the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Although the tournament supported a temporary increase in US travel spending in June, overseas arrivals continued to decline in subsequent monthly data.
Which developments are being monitored by the travel industry?
Government agencies and industry organisations are tracking international arrival figures alongside changes in visa processing, border procedures and travel costs. The latest data also highlight differences between source markets, with declines in Western Europe and parts of Asia offset partly by growth from South America and selected Asian markets.
For hotels, destination marketing organisations, attractions and inbound operators, international visitor volumes remain a key indicator of demand from overseas markets. Further NTTO releases will provide additional data on arrivals and market performance as the year progresses.
Tags: US Travel
