The projection exceeds GBTA’s previous forecast of US$1.69 trillion for 2026. However, the association said spending growth continues to be driven largely by higher prices, while the number of business trips is increasing at a slower rate.
For the first time, GBTA’s annual Business Travel Index Outlook includes a separate forecast for global business travel volume. The report projects that the number of trips will rise by 1.3% in 2026 to 1.84 billion.
The outlook was developed with Rockport Analytics and released during GBTA’s annual convention in Chicago.
Global business travel spending increased by 8.4% in 2025, exceeding the association’s previous forecast of 6.6% growth. GBTA attributed the higher expenditure to stronger-than-expected economic activity, a weaker US dollar and an easing of trade disputes during the second half of the year.
Several of these factors have continued into 2026, including corporate investment and demand for in-person meetings. However, conflict in the Middle East has affected some travel demand, while uncertainty surrounding international trade policy remains.
GBTA stated: “The outlook remains positive, although the challenges to growth are expected to moderate spending to a more sustainable pace,”
The association said that organisations had not substantially reduced business travel despite rising costs, although companies were becoming more selective about individual journeys and focusing more closely on productivity and return on travel expenditure.
Edward Galvin, Vice President and Head of North America for Visa Commercial Solutions, said during a presentation at the convention that business travel spending in service-oriented industries was expected to grow by between 5% and 6% in 2026.
The sectors expected to record the strongest expenditure growth include technology, real estate, healthcare and education.
GBTA forecasts that global business travel spending will continue to increase annually through 2030, when expenditure is expected to exceed US$2 trillion for the first time. Annual growth between 2027 and 2030 is projected to range from 4% to 6%.
The United States is expected to remain the world’s largest business travel market in 2026. Domestic and international outbound business travel spending is projected to increase by 6.7% to US$423 billion.
China, the world’s second-largest business travel market, is forecast to record expenditure of US$403.7 billion in 2026, representing year-on-year growth of 5.9%.
According to GBTA, China will become the final market among the 15 largest countries monitored by the association to exceed its 2019 level of nominal business travel spending.
Brazil is expected to record the fastest spending growth among the 15 leading markets, with expenditure increasing by 13.8% to US$35.8 billion. The Netherlands is forecast to post the lowest percentage increase, rising by 4.4% to US$25.2 billion.
Suzanne Neufang, CEO of GBTA, said: “The big story this year is that companies haven’t stepped away from travel, but they are increasingly more selective and productivity-focused. While business travel spending continues to grow, the number of trips is rising more slowly, making it necessary for all of us to assess industry and organizational impact.”
Tags: Suzanne Neufang, GBTA
