January and February recorded cumulative growth of 2.5%. However, the Middle East conflict impacted March performance, limiting monthly growth to 0.4%. UN Tourism now expects international tourism growth in 2026 to fall by 1 to 2 percentage points below its initial forecast of 3% to 4%, depending on the duration and scope of the conflict.
International tourism growth under geopolitical
pressure
The conflict has disrupted flights to, from and within the Middle East. In
addition, rising oil prices and jet fuel shortages in some markets are
increasing air fares and reducing flight capacity globally. As a result, more
expensive travel and uncertainty around connectivity may redirect demand toward closer
destinations and affect overall international tourism growth.
UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais said, “The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is disrupting travel
patterns well beyond the region itself, including rising inflation,
particularly in transport and accommodation. This is placing pressure on
travellers, businesses and destinations alike. Even amid this uncertainty,
international tourism continued to show resilience in the first quarter of
2026, with 307 million people travelling internationally, a 2% increase on last
year. At a time of growing geopolitical and economic pressure, this reinforces
tourism’s wider role in supporting economies, creating opportunity and
sustaining communities far beyond the sector itself.”
Regional performance shaping international tourism
growth
Europe recorded the strongest absolute performance, welcoming over 130
million international tourists in Q1 2026, a 4% increase year-on-year. Southern
Mediterranean Europe and Northern Europe both grew 4%, while Central and
Eastern Europe expanded 6%.
Africa also posted 4% growth. North Africa increased 4%, supported by a
strong double-digit performance in March (+18%). Sub-Saharan Africa grew 4%
overall.
Asia and the Pacific expanded 3%, although results were uneven. February
showed strong growth (+9%), while March slowed to 2% due to disruptions
affecting Middle Eastern air hubs. South Asia recorded a 27% decline. Oceania
(+9%) and North-East Asia (+5%) delivered the strongest regional gains. Overall,
Asia remains at 89% of Q1 2019 levels.
The Americas recorded 2% growth, supported by Central America (+18%), while
South America declined 1%.
The Middle East experienced a 14% drop in arrivals in Q1 2026. Some Gulf destinations saw significant declines, although Egypt recorded 16% growth. This follows a strong rebound in 2025, when Middle East arrivals exceeded 2019 levels by 40%.
Top-performing destinations in Q1 included Paraguay (+46%), New Zealand
(+45%), El Salvador (+43%), Mongolia (+39%), Palau (+37%) and Uzbekistan
(+37%). In terms of receipts, Pakistan (+60%), Republic of Korea (+38%),
Morocco (+24%), Brunei (+22%) and Brazil (+12%) reported double-digit growth.
Industry outlook and travel cost pressures
According to UN Tourism’s Panel of Experts, 64% of respondents report that
the Middle East conflict is negatively affecting travel demand for their
destinations. Around 61% indicate reduced inbound tourism, while 17% report
gains due to redirected flows. Approximately 14% observe growth in domestic
tourism, replacing outbound demand.
The UN Tourism Confidence Index for May–August 2026 stands at 105 on a
scale of 0–200, below the 117 recorded for January–April. About 39% of experts
expect better performance, 28% foresee stable results, and 31% anticipate
weaker outcomes.
Rising oil prices, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, volatile jet fuel
costs and continued inflation in tourism services are cited as key risk factors.
Higher transport prices and reduced air capacity are likely to influence
booking behaviour and destination choice.
Key aviation and accommodation indicators
According to IATA, international air traffic grew 4% in Q1 2026, measured in revenue passenger-kilometres. However, international traffic declined 1% in March due to a 61% contraction among Middle Eastern carriers. International air capacity rose 2% in Q1, although March capacity fell 6%, largely driven by a 57% drop in the Middle East.
Passenger flows were partially redirected to African, Asia Pacific and
European carriers. Meanwhile, global hotel occupancy reached 64% in March 2026,
matching March 2025 levels. Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific each recorded
65% occupancy. Africa reached 56%, while the Middle East declined to 48% in
March from 75% in January.
Despite geopolitical volatility and rising costs, international tourism
growth remains positive. However, UN Tourism notes that performance in the
remainder of 2026 will depend heavily on geopolitical developments, fuel price
stability and global economic conditions
