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Total global seat capacity for summer 2025 ended at 3.626 billion seats, up 2.3% from 2024. Looking ahead to winter, OAG forecasts continued capacity gains driven by the recovery of long-haul networks and strong performance in selected regional markets.
Regional winter capacity trends
Most global regions are now operating above winter 2019 capacity levels, with the exception of South-East Asia, where recovery remains slow due to weaker demand in Indonesia. However, planned 5.2% capacity growth this winter suggests that the region could return to pre-pandemic levels by late 2026.
- North-East Asia remains the world’s largest aviation region, with 4.7% year-on-year winter growth. China’s capacity is up 6.2% compared to last winter, although route patterns differ from 2019.
- North America is expected to grow 2.1%, still holding second place.
- Europe shows 4.6% growth, narrowing the gap with North America to just five million winter seats.
- South Asia continues to outperform overall growth trends, led by strong demand from India, now expanding faster than the Middle East market.
Strongest country markets
Year-on-year comparisons show clear growth momentum among top aviation markets:
- Turkey leads with 9.3% growth, driven by expanding hub operations in Istanbul and low-cost capacity at Sabiha Gökçen Airport.
- Brazil reports 7.2% growth, though OAG notes the market remains volatile.
- United Kingdom capacity is up 2.7%, just ahead of Spain at 2.2%, reflecting competitive dynamics among European carriers.
- Japan shows a mixed trend: domestic capacity has declined by 2 million seats, partially offset by a 1.2 million seat increase in international capacity.
International continues to outpace domestic growth
International air travel is expanding faster than domestic, with 5.8% capacity growth versus 2.6% for domestic markets. International routes now account for 40% of all seats, compared to 38% in winter 2019.
- The United States remains the largest international aviation market, with 3% growth fueled by new routes to winter-sun destinations such as Mexico and the Caribbean.
- The United Kingdom retains its position as the second-largest international market.
- Spain reports 6% growth in international capacity despite disputes between Ryanair and AENA.
Domestic growth led by China and India
While U.S. domestic demand is softening, with growth below 2%, momentum is shifting toward Asia:
- China adds nearly 6% in winter domestic capacity.
- India, now one of the fastest-growing domestic markets globally, posts 7.6% growth.
Major airlines winter rankings
The world’s largest carriers by winter seat capacity:
| Airline | Planned Seats Winter 2025 | Growth vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 118.2 million | +5.1% |
| Delta Air Lines | 2nd | n/a |
| United Airlines | 3rd | +6.3% |
| Air China | Top 10 | +8.6% |
| China Southern & China Eastern | Top 10 | Positive growth |
Chinese carriers are among the most aggressive in capacity expansion, with Air China alone adding over four million seats this winter.
Outlook
The OAG analysis concludes that while capacity changes are expected in the coming months, the market outlook remains stable. Supply chain pressures have eased and airline schedules are becoming more predictable.
If demand continues to align with network expansion, 2025 could close as a strong year for aviation, supported by balanced growth across regions and a healthy rebound in international travel.
Tags: John Grant, OAG
