The report, developed with the European Tourism Futures Institute, introduces scenario planning as a method to strengthen resilience. Rather than predicting the future, the study presents multiple plausible outcomes and identifies strategies that remain robust under different conditions.
Key forces shaping European tourism
The study identifies six interconnected forces that will influence the evolution of the sector:
- Climate change – more extreme weather, higher costs, and seasonality disruptions.
- Fear of rapid change – instability driven by fast technological and social shifts.
- EU governance and regulation – stronger coordination needed to address systemic crises.
- Rise of the global middle class – reshaping visitor flows alongside Europe’s ageing population.
- Generational demand shift – younger travellers seeking sustainability, flexibility, and authenticity.
- Labour and skills shortages – limiting innovation and adaptation capacity.
Among these, EU governance and generational demand shifts are seen as the main uncertainties, while climate change and the growth of the global middle class are considered fixed realities.
Four scenarios for 2035
The foresight process produced four scenarios illustrating how different combinations of forces may shape Europe’s tourism landscape:
- Fragmented and Familiar – Weak EU governance, reliance on global platforms, growth in mass tourism, but declining authenticity and SME competitiveness.
- Coordinated and Familiar – Strong EU collaboration builds resilience, but dependence on platforms and mass-market patterns continue.
- Collaborative Transformation – Inclusive governance and generational shifts enable regenerative, participatory tourism aligned with climate and digital agendas.
- Uneven Transformation – Local innovation flourishes, but disparities grow without EU-wide cohesion.
Recommendations for resilient strategies
Across scenarios, the study emphasizes cross-cutting actions valuable under any future:
- Stronger cross-border collaboration and EU-level coordination.
- Support for SMEs to strengthen competitiveness.
- Tailored climate mitigation and adaptation measures.
- Clearer communication of tourism’s local impact.
- Partnering with technology platforms for innovation.
- Creation of a futures lab for National Tourism Organisations (NTOs) to track emerging signals and adapt strategies.
Commenting on the findings, ETC President Miguel Sanz said: Tourism in Europe is undergoing deep transformation, driven by climate change, shifting demographics and new patterns of demand. For National Tourism Organisations, it is no longer enough to plan only for the short term, they must be prepared for very different possible futures. This study provides them with the foresight tools to do so. By encouraging EU collaboration, strengthening resilience, and pointing to actions that remain relevant across scenarios, the report helps NTOs make decisions today that will keep European tourism strong and adaptive in the years ahead.
The ETC report positions scenario planning as a practical approach to help destinations navigate uncertainty, build resilience, and adapt to systemic change, ensuring that European tourism remains strong and competitive through 2035 and beyond.
Tags: Europe’s tourism sector, Miguel Sanz, European Travel Commission (ETC)
