An estimated 690 million tourists travelled internationally between January and June, according to the latest UN Tourism World Tourism Barometer. This was around three million more than during the same period of 2025.
However, the six-month figure masks a clear loss of momentum during the second quarter. International arrivals grew 2% in the first quarter but declined 1% in Q2. April alone recorded a 3% year-on-year fall.
Tourism momentum weakens during second quarter
UN Tourism linked April’s decline partly to the timing of Easter, which began in March this year. At the same time, the Middle East conflict affected air connectivity, consumer confidence and travel costs. The slowdown continued into June, when global international arrivals fell 3% year on year. Western Europe recorded a 6% decline during the month, partly because of heatwaves in several destinations.
South-East Asia also experienced weaker performance. Arrivals fell 5% in June amid softer demand from Asian source markets, geopolitical tensions and higher travel costs. Air traffic disruption through the Middle East added further pressure.
Meanwhile, some destinations in Oceania recorded a 6% decline in June. UN Tourism said Typhoon Sinlaku also affected tourism activity during the second quarter.
Africa and Europe record strongest regional growth
Regional results remained mixed during the first six months of the year. Africa recorded a 4% increase in international arrivals, while Europe grew by 3%. The Americas posted growth of 2%.
Asia and the Pacific recorded a more modest 1% increase. However, arrivals across the region remained 11% below 2019 levels. Higher airfares, connectivity disruption and uncertainty continued to affect intra-regional travel. North-East Asia performed better, with arrivals increasing 3% during the first half. In contrast, South Asia declined 5%, while South-East Asia fell 1%.
The Middle East experienced the sharpest decline. International arrivals fell 22% during the first half as the conflict directly affected tourism and aviation activity across the region.
Middle East disruption affects destinations worldwide
The effects were not limited to destinations within the Middle East. Changes to air routes through the region affected long-haul connectivity between Europe, Asia and other markets. Higher fuel costs also drove up fares and operating expenses. As a result, the conflict influenced travel decisions in markets far beyond the region itself.
Air traffic disruption began to ease during May and June after a ceasefire announcement. Some routes reopened, although consumer confidence recovered unevenly.
UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais said the latest results showed that tourism continued to absorb significant external pressure. However, she warned that current growth remained fragile.
“Tourism has not stopped growing, but that growth is fragile,” Al Nuwais said. She added that the Middle East situation demonstrated the need to build resilience across the global tourism system.
UN Tourism cuts its 2026 growth outlook
UN Tourism has now lowered its full-year forecast for international arrivals. It expects global growth of between 1% and 2% in 2026, compared with its previous forecast of 3% to 4%. The outlook will depend partly on geopolitical developments and their impact on oil prices and inflation. Continued uncertainty could also influence air capacity and consumer travel budgets.
Consequently, travellers are expected to remain more price-sensitive. UN Tourism anticipates stronger demand for value-for-money trips, domestic travel and destinations closer to home.
Tourism businesses face a more complex demand environment
For airlines, hotels and destinations, the latest figures point to a more challenging operating environment. Strong post-pandemic growth has given way to more uneven demand across regions and source markets. Air connectivity will remain particularly important. Disruptions in one region can now affect long-haul travel patterns across several continents, while higher fuel costs can quickly increase fares.
Destinations may therefore need to place greater emphasis on market diversification and regional demand. Flexible pricing and stronger domestic and short-haul strategies could also become more important if uncertainty persists.
The first-half results nevertheless show that global tourism continues to grow despite substantial pressure. Yet the modest 0.4% increase also underlines how sensitive international tourism growth has become to geopolitical events, climate disruption and higher travel costs.
Tags: Shaikha Al Nuwais UN Tourism