According to Scott Sage, Senior Vice President, Marketing & Customer Experience, AirDNA, the weather had a significant impact in Q1, with weaker snowfall leading to a 5.3% year-over-year drop in demand for mountain destinations this March. In contrast, coastal and urban markets saw strong performance. California coastal cities, such as San Diego (+11.1%), San Francisco (+9.7%), and Anaheim (+8.4%), led occupancy growth among major markets. Urban destinations like Denver (+8.1%) also experienced solid increases.
The U.S. STR market is stabilizing, with occupancy improving as demand rebounds and supply growth levels off. Despite broader economic uncertainty, booking activity remains strong, suggesting that travelers are continuing to plan ahead while adjusting to shifting conditions. The outlook for Q2 is promising, with Spring Break, the summer season, and major events like the World Cup driving demand growth.
In March 2026, the STR market in the U.S. began to stabilize, following a slower start to the year. Occupancy remained slightly below last year’s levels, but the gap has continued to narrow as demand strengthened across most location types. This shift reflects a normalization of travel patterns after the volatility of late 2025, with demand becoming more responsive to seasonal drivers and external factors like weather.
Despite challenges like rising inflation driven by energy prices, forward pacing points to a positive outlook. Spring Break, summer events, and the World Cup are expected to support continued demand growth into Q2. While near-term performance remains mixed, the underlying signals suggest a more stable and potentially stronger market in the months ahead.
Key U.S. STR Per
formance Metrics for March 2026:
- Revenue per Available Rental (RevPAR): $165.14, a 2.3% increase YoY
- Available listings: 1.68 million, up 3.3% YoY
- Demand nights: +2.0%
- Occupancy: 61.3%, down 0.3% YoY
- Average Daily Rates (ADR): $269.34, up 2.6% YoY
- Repeat Rent Index (RRI): +5.1% YoY
- Total nights booked: +5.2% YoY
Economic Outlook
Inflation, primarily driven by higher gasoline prices, rose to 3.3% in March 2026, the highest rate in nearly two years. This increase followed disruptions in oil shipping caused by tensions in Iran. Inflation has been a concern for consumers and markets, especially after the “Liberation Day” tariff increases in 2025. Although tax cuts in 2026 had some initial stimulatory promise, higher prices could offset these benefits.
AirDNA observed that declining mortgage rates earlier in the year were expected to increase STR investment and supply. However, mortgage rates climbed to 6.5% by the end of March, weakening the outlook for home sales and STR listings. For existing operators, this may result in a wider moat around the market, helping occupancy rates to improve slightly.
The U.S. labor market added 178,000 jobs in March, but real wages fell 0.6%, indicating a tight labor market with mixed prospects for economic stability. The unemployment rate decreased from 4.4% in February to 4.3% in March, but the labor force participation rate also slightly declined, signaling ongoing economic challenges.
Tags: Scott Sage, AirDNA