At the start of 2026, global traffic and capacity were expected to grow between 4% and 6% year-on-year, in line with forward schedules and forecasts from IATA, which had projected a 4.9% increase in global passenger traffic.
Initial performance data indicated moderate growth, with January traffic increasing by 3.8% and capacity by 3.5% compared to 2025. Cirium data shows that ASKs grew by 5.3% in February, while March schedules initially pointed to a 5.6% increase, down from a previously forecast 6.8%.
However, tracked utilisation data up to 22 March 2026 shows that passenger flights increased by only 1.2% compared to the same period in 2025. The most significant impact has been on Middle East-based airlines, which recorded a 52% decline in flights year-on-year.
While the region accounted for approximately 4% of global flights in March 2025, it represented around 10% of global ASKs due to the prevalence of widebody aircraft and long-haul routes. Capacity among Middle Eastern carriers declined by 56.5%, contributing to an overall global contraction of 2.5% during the first 22 days of the conflict.
Other regions have also experienced disruptions, though to a lesser extent. Many airlines have reduced or cancelled services to destinations including Gulf states, Saudi Arabia and Israel. African carriers have seen a capacity impact of approximately five to six percentage points, while European airlines recorded ASK growth of 2%, compared to a planned 5.3% increase.
Asian airlines have experienced a smaller overall impact of around one percentage point, although effects vary across markets, with carriers from the Indian subcontinent more affected. North American airlines have also recorded limited disruption, with service suspensions to Riyadh and Dubai reducing capacity by approximately one percentage point.
Looking ahead, several airlines have extended service suspensions into April and May. Current forward schedules indicate that April 2026 capacity growth has been revised down to 3.4% from 5.4% prior to the conflict, while May projections have declined slightly from 6.6% to 6.3%.
Despite continued strong demand in other markets, the disruption has resulted in an estimated eight percentage-point impact on airline capacity in March. The situation is expected to influence aircraft utilisation and fleet planning decisions if sustained over a longer period.
Tags: IATA, airlines Richard Evans, Cirium