The study compares scheduled seat capacity for travel between 14 April and 31 May 2026, based on data recorded one week prio to the onset of the conflict and the most recent available schedules. It focuses on direct routes connecting the United States, Mexico and Brazil with countries in Western Asia.
Air connectivity between the United States and the Middle East has experienced the most pronounced contraction, with seat availability from 14 U.S. airports declining by 59.1 percent. The reduction reflects route cancellations by major carriers including United Airlines, American Airlines and Delta Air Lines, alongside capacity adjustments by Middle Eastern airlines.
Among these, Qatar Airways recorded the largest decrease, with seat availability from U.S. airports falling by 60.5 percent. This was followed by Royal Jordanian and Emirates, with reductions of 23.7 percent and 21 percent respectively, while Etihad Airways reported a decline of 18.4 percent.
Carlos Cendra, Director of Marketing and Communications at Mabrian, said: “The scale of the decline underscores the sensitivity of long-haul international travel to geopolitical instability, particularly in corridors reliant on complex airspace operations and demand confidence.”
“Critical role” he noted, referring to the importance of these routes for business travel, which has been “particularly affected by the disruption of these routes and key air connectivity hubs.”
Beyond the United States, the analysis identifies secondary impacts across Latin America. Brazil recorded declines on key routes linking São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro with major Middle Eastern hubs such as Istanbul, Doha and Dubai. Seat capacity on Emirates routes from Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo to Dubai decreased by 10.2 percent, while the São Paulo–Doha route operated by Qatar Airways fell by 57.9 percent. The São Paulo–Istanbul route operated by Turkish Airlines recorded a smaller decline of 2.3 percent.
Mexico showed a more limited impact, as its direct connectivity to the Middle East is currently restricted to a single route operated by Turkish Airlines. Overall seat capacity declined by 3.2 percent following the onset of the conflict.
The analysis also highlights the potential impact of rising fuel costs on future demand dynamics, suggesting that changes in travel costs may influence travellers in the United States, Mexico and Brazil to shift toward domestic and regional destinations.
Tags: Carlos Cendra Mabrian The Data Appeal Company