The study examined more than 230,000 confirmed bookings from 115 operators worldwide and found that a significant share of repeat guest revenue continues to flow through platforms such as Airbnb, VRBO and Booking.com, despite guests having previously stayed with the same operator.
hostAI describes this pattern as “repeat guest leakage”,
a structural issue in which operators successfully build guest loyalty but
still incur commission costs of between 12% and 20% on returning customers.
According to the analysis, repeat guests account for between 1% and 26% of
total booking revenue, with a median share of 5%. Of this repeat guest revenue,
approximately 77% is processed through OTAs, resulting in ongoing commission
payments on guests already acquired.
The findings indicate that the scale of revenue leakage is closely linked to
the strength of an operator’s direct booking channels. Operators with less than
5% of bookings coming through direct channels lose up to 87% of repeat guest
revenue to OTAs, while those with more than 30% direct bookings reduce this
loss to around 10%.
Amirali Mohajer, CEO and
founder of hostAI, said: “Most short-term rental
operators do not know how many of their guests are repeat customers or why they
return to OTAs,” adding that investing in direct bookings “not only reduces costs but also builds much stronger long-term
loyalty. Data from hostAI’s platform shows that guests who book directly return
28.3% of the time, compared with only 8.9% through Airbnb, meaning that direct
bookings generate three times more repeat guests than OTAs.”
The study also shows that the channel used for a guest’s first booking plays a decisive role in future behaviour. Around 86% of guests who initially booked directly returned through the same channel, while nearly 89% of guests who first booked via Airbnb rebooked on that platform.
According to hostAI, this pattern demonstrates that direct relationships
and post-stay communication significantly influence repeat behaviour and
long-term revenue performance.
Operator size also affects revenue leakage. Larger portfolios tend to
generate a higher volume of repeat guests but lose a greater share of that
revenue to OTAs, while smaller operators are generally more effective at
retaining repeat guests through direct channels.
One example cited in the study involves a luxury operator in Florida, where
only 15% of bookings were made directly, yet those bookings accounted for 84%
of repeat guest revenue. The operator relied on paid advertising and structured
post-stay email campaigns rather than sole dependence on OTAs.
hostAI attributes repeat guest reliance on OTAs to factors including
stronger brand recall for platforms than for operators, limited incentives to
book directly and a perception of greater security and familiarity when using
OTAs.
The company notes that addressing repeat guest leakage requires clearer
brand positioning, direct booking incentives, accurate measurement of
OTA-related costs, targeted guest acquisition strategies and consistent
communication with past guests.
The analysis is based on 231,150 anonymised bookings from 2025, covering
operators managing between one and 588 properties, with annual booking values
ranging from $31,000 to $15 million.
Tags: Amirali Mohajer, hostAI