According to the analysis, 2026 may bring weaker economic growth as the effects of tariffs continue to influence global markets. Oxford Economics forecasts a 2.6% global growth rate, the lowest since 2009 excluding 2020, with inflation expected to ease only gradually and remain above 3%. Against this backdrop, organisations will need to strengthen their travel risk management and commercial planning.
The report identifies six primary risks for travel programs: extreme weather, regional tensions and conflicts, changing border policies, cyberattacks and misinformation linked to AI, ongoing threats from illnesses and disease, and reduced access to accommodation and ground transport during large-scale events. BCD encourages organisations to prepare for disruptions by using travel risk intelligence tools, developing contingency plans, seeking guidance from visa and immigration specialists, and integrating preventative medical and security services.
Commenting on the risk landscape, Jorge Mesa, Senior Director of Travel Risk Management at BCD, said: “In today’s travel landscape, organizations face unprecedented challenges. But travel managers don’t have to face these alone. Through our innovation and expert guidance, we help clients strengthen their travel risk management programs with our Traveler Security Program Assessment. Our real-time incident and destination intelligence and traveler response capabilities help clients stay ahead of these disruptions by providing proactive strategies and advanced travel risk technologies. Our goal is to ensure business travelers remain safe and operations run smoothly, even in times of uncertainty.”
In aviation, global airfares are expected to see only limited growth. Average ticket prices are projected to increase by 1.1%, driven mainly by intercontinental markets. The strongest inflation is anticipated in Africa at 2.5% and Asia at 2.0%, while weaker increases are expected in the Americas, particularly North America. BCD’s Advito consultancy highlights five trends that travel buyers should monitor, including weaker value in corporate airline contracts, cost avoidance, higher fuel surcharges, widespread NDC adoption and continued program leakage.
Olivier Benoit, Senior Vice President of BCD’s consulting division, Advito, noted: “When it comes to maintaining a competitive air program, it’s crucial to have access to the right data. Our Air Practice’s robust suite of advanced analytics tools, including the Airfare Predictor and Dynamic Performance Management dashboards, help travel managers stay ahead of the airlines’ everchanging pricing and inventory management strategies. These also maximize the value of corporate airline contracts, reduce leakage, reduce carbon emissions and spot opportunities to drive savings and influence traveler behavior.”
Global hotel rates are projected to rise more sharply, with average daily rates increasing by 4.9%. Regional differences reflect factors such as labour costs in Turkey and strong leisure demand in Japan. Rate inflation in Africa, Asia and Europe is expected to fall within the 4–6% range, while the Middle East may see increases of around 8%. Hotels in Latin America are projected to average 6.4% rate growth, while the most moderate increases are expected in the Southwest Pacific (2.6%) and North America (2.2%).
According to Miriam Moscovici, Vice President of Product Planning and Intelligence at BCD, “With global hotel rates projected to rise nearly 5%, travel managers and buyers need proactive measures to control costs. BCD’s holistic, technology-driven hotel solution – Stay by BCD Travel – is designed to drive value across our clients’ hotel programs. From sourcing and data-driven program optimization, to Hotel Price Assurance for automated reshopping, we help offset these increases and deliver measurable savings for travel programs, ensuring travelers always have access to the best available rates.”
Car rental rates are also set to continue rising due to acquisition and repair costs, city surcharges and increasing parking fees. BCD expects corporate rental rates to grow at a more moderate pace than in 2025, estimated between 2–4%. Companies may see more travellers opting for taxis and ride-hailing services as alternatives.
Sustainability is expected to become a core strategic requirement in 2026. Accountability will play a greater role as companies shift from pledges to measurable actions. According to GBTA benchmarks, travel program maturity remains low at 1.4 out of 5, with only 9% of companies applying carbon fees and 15% investing in sustainable aviation fuel. BCD highlights its Sustainability Solution as a way to simplify emissions reporting, engage travellers and support decarbonisation efforts.
Olivia Ruggles-Brise, Vice President of Sustainability at BCD and GBTA Climate Leader, said: “The GBTA findings show that while companies are committed to sustainable travel, progress in critical areas is lagging. Closing this gap requires practical solutions that make sustainability achievable without disrupting business. That’s exactly what BCD delivers.”
The 2026 Outlook reinforces the need for proactive planning and data-driven decision-making as corporate travel programs navigate economic uncertainty, evolving risks and increasing cost pressures.
Tags: Olivia Ruggles-Brise, Jorge Mesa, BCD Travel