Geneva
– The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released June
figures showing a 1.2% year-on-year expansion in global air freight
demand. Although weak, this is an improvement when compared to the
0.9% year-on-year demand growth recorded in May and the 0.1% growth
realized over the first half of the year.
While
previously the global economic trend has been defined by robust
emerging economies and stagnant growth in developed markets, the
strongest improvements in business confidence are now occurring in
some developed economies. Nevertheless, overall business confidence,
which is a key indicator for air freight, continues to be weak.
From
May to June, global freight volumes increased by 0.8%. A quarter of
that improvement was captured by European airlines which saw a 0.9%
improvement in demand compared to May, and 2.6% up compared to June
2012. In contrast, Asia-Pacific carriers (the biggest players in
global air freight) and North American airlines recorded year-on-year
declines of 1.8% and 1.2% respectively.
"It’s
too early to tell if June was a positive turning point after 18
months of stagnation. Air freight volumes are at their highest since
mid-2011, but that good news needs to be tempered with a dose of
reality. The global economic environment remains weak, and the basis
for the acceleration of air cargo growth in June appears to be
fragile," said Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
Earlier
this month IATA released the July edition of its Airline Business
Confidence Index which showed nearly 58% of respondents expecting
freight volumes to increase over the next year. Despite this, a much
greater percentage of respondents (72.2%) expect no change in weak
cargo yields despite their expected increase in demand over the same
period. The macro-economic trend remains challenging. Recent declines
in global export orders do not bode well for trade growth.
June 2013 vs.
June 2012 |
FTK Growth |
AFTK Growth |
FLF |
International |
1.2% |
2.8% |
49.0 |
Domestic |
1.2% |
2.4% |
29.8 |
Total
Market |
1.2% |
2.7% |
45.2 |
YTD 2013 vs.
YTD 2012 |
FTK Growth |
AFTK Growth |
FLF |
International |
-0.2% |
0.8% |
49.0 |
Domestic |
1.8% |
1.5% |
30.2 |
Total
Market |
0.1% |
1.0% |
45.2 |
Regional Analysis in Detail
Asia-Pacific demand
continued to be weak with volumes contracting 1.8% compared to June
2012 and by 2.3% over the first six months of the year. This is the
weakest performance among the regions and reflects the
broad impact of the slowing Chinese economic expansion.
By
contrast, European carriers
grew freight volumes by 2.6% compared to June 2012. Although the
Eurozone remains in recession, there are some signs of stability. For
example, manufacturing activity contracted at its slowest pace in 16
months, easing pressure on key economies such as Italy, Spain and
France. Moreover an improvement in consumer confidence is likely to
support demand for the sale of light-weight high-value goods that are
typically shipped by air.
North
American airlines
reported a 1.2% contraction year-on-year for June and a 1.6% fall
over the first six months of 2013 compared to the same period in
2012. The US economy looks to have slowed in the second quarter.
Business activity continues to expand; however at a slower pace than
in previous months.
Middle
Eastern airlines
saw a continued robust expansion of demand with freight volumes
growing by 12.7% year-on-year. The consistent high growth in recent
years, as the region’s carriers take advantage of the geographical
position of the Middle East, has led to a substantial increase in its
share of world air freight.
Latin
American airlines
experienced a 7.0% growth in cargo volumes compared to June 2012.
This is almost double the year to date trend of 3.7% growth.
Latin-American exports have been growing faster than any other region
in recent months, underpinning this stronger performance.
African airlines
recorded relatively slower growth in June, up 2.4% on June 2012. This
lags the year to date trend of 4.3%, which is the second best of all
regions. With economic growth in some key African markets looking
strong, demand for high-value light weight consumer goods should
rise, helping air freight volumes in the months to come.